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    Posts: 14158
  • Darwins +475/-40

I think we can all agree that if you flip a coin, the chances of getting either heads or tails are 50%, no matter how many times you flip it.  But let's say you flip it, and get a tails.  If you flip it again, what are the odds of getting another tails?

If you said 50%, you would be wrong. ...

The rest of your post is spot on, jaime, but your way of wording this isn't quite accurate.  If you've already flipped and gotten a tails, then that probability of getting tails is now 100% - not 50%.  Because it's already happened.  Getting tails again has a probability of 50%, because it's 50% times 100% instead of 50% times 50%.
Changed Change Reason Date
kcrady Paradox solved. That didn't take long. :) January 28, 2014, 01:31:40 AM