Author Topic: who can work out this?  (Read 7973 times)

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Offline Omen

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #29 on: October 08, 2009, 03:25:00 PM »
And about 2.2% of the posters on the forum have already hit every single number Gnu has ( including myself ) and more.

That is over 1 out of 50, and the likelihood of seeing it is also depending on the activity of the members on the forum.  Which it is more likely that you're going to have encounters with the more active members on the forum who will naturally have more post.  Not to mention the ever increasing # of posters who approach that # and onward, which there are about another .5% that are within a 100 posts or less of it.
Sorry, had to go for a while,
Fine, people, we are on the same side, really, Omen, you have just get to another important determinant in calculating the normal probability of "1111" posts, the number of active members whose posts counter are around, I am not saying it is so improbable, in contrary, I will calculate the probability for you if no one show and say he can, I am just defending against Omen's claim that there is nothing special about "1111" more than "1112"

Your defending.. where? Where have you even offered the SLIGHTEST HINT that you have any reasoning to attach to 1111 over 1112 other then special pleading?
"Religious faith is the antithesis to knowledge, it is the opposition to education, and it has to act in animosity against the free exchange of ideas.  Why? Because those things are what cause harm to a religions place in society most." - Me

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #30 on: October 08, 2009, 03:33:32 PM »
Your defending.. where? Where have you even offered the SLIGHTEST HINT that you have any reasoning to attach to 1111 over 1112 other then special pleading?
Here is what you are asking for:
"1111" has other 9 equivalent combinations, they are:(2222, 3333, 4444, ......, 9999) all equiprobable
While "1112" has much more equivalent combinations:(1113, 1114, ......, 1119, 2221, 2223, ......, 2229, ......, 9998) all equiprobable too
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Offline bahramthered

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #31 on: October 08, 2009, 03:38:19 PM »
So your fascinated because a number came up, 1111 which isn't improbable. It happens all the time, many of us hit it. Heck if you wanted to you could deliberately post till you got and make a goodbye speech on post 1111.

As a counted progress (counting posts) there was no reason not to expect it. If it was a random number generator maybe it'd be improbable. As it is it's nothing. But a fleeting moment. 

Offline Omen

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #32 on: October 08, 2009, 03:43:19 PM »
Your defending.. where? Where have you even offered the SLIGHTEST HINT that you have any reasoning to attach to 1111 over 1112 other then special pleading?
Here is what you are asking for:
"1111" has other 9 equivalent combinations, they are:(2222, 3333, 4444, ......, 9999) all equiprobable
While "1112" has much more equivalent combinations:(1113, 1114, ......, 1119, 2221, 2223, ......, 2229, ......, 9998) all equiprobable too

IRRELEVANT

You're talking about a SINGLE INTEGER ON A LINEAR SCALE IN WHICH EVERY INTEGER THAT COMES BEFORE THE LAST ONE HAS THE SAME EXACT PROBABILITY OF APPEARING.

1111 is equal to 1112

Now, simply because you happen to look at it while it hit 1111 is irrelevant, it doesn't get special meaning simply because YOU happen to see it.  At least, it doesn't get any special significance that you have all the information to be able to determine.

Right now, it is just as equal to seeing it as 1112 as it is at 1111.  We don't have to give a shit about any other number, because they all have an equal probability of being seen.
"Religious faith is the antithesis to knowledge, it is the opposition to education, and it has to act in animosity against the free exchange of ideas.  Why? Because those things are what cause harm to a religions place in society most." - Me

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #33 on: October 08, 2009, 03:51:55 PM »
Now, simply because you happen to look at it while it hit 1111 is irrelevant, it doesn't get special meaning simply because YOU happen to see it.
What I am talking about here, is what is the probability that I could randomly have a look at the number during the period of time it was standing at "1111" it doesn't equal the probability of seeing "1112" at all
try to imagine it with a much extreme case, consider this one : "123456789" is it just a number, is it equiprobable to any other number, if your answer is yes, then I can't help you any better.
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Online One Above All

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2009, 03:52:45 PM »
Now, simply because you happen to look at it while it hit 1111 is irrelevant, it doesn't get special meaning simply because YOU happen to see it.
What I am talking about here, is what is the probability that I could randomly have a look at the number during the period of time it was standing at "1111" it doesn't equal the probability of seeing "1112" at all
try to imagine it with a much extreme case, consider this one : "123456789" is it just a number, is it equiprobable to any other number, if your answer is yes, then I can't help you any better.

as i said before, there are too many variables to calculate the odds
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Offline GetMeThere

Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #35 on: October 08, 2009, 03:59:25 PM »
Here is something that looks so weird, it is about the member "Gnu Ordure", here you are what I am talking about:



Is it some kind of miracle?, I am very interested who can calculate the normal probability of such thing to happen?

Well, at least we can offer Gnu's post number as support for Benford's Law

Edit: And how scary is it that this post is my 100th ?!?!?!

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #36 on: October 08, 2009, 04:00:46 PM »
as i said before, there are too many variables to calculate the odds
That is true, and if you could gather them all and make the calculation, with all the possible information involved, the result would be exactly 1, but as we can't get all the info, we use the probability to the best extent we can
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Offline bahramthered

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #37 on: October 08, 2009, 04:02:27 PM »
There are no odds. It is one plus one, Repeat. End at 1111 or whatever arbitary number you think is important.

Online One Above All

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #38 on: October 08, 2009, 04:06:33 PM »
There are no odds. It is one plus one, Repeat. End at 1111 or whatever arbitary number you think is important.

the odds of a person looking at the number of posts by a member when it's *insert random number here*
The truth is absolute. Life forms are specks of specks (...) of specks of dust in the universe.
Why settle for normal, when you can be so much more? Why settle for something, when you can have everything?
We choose our own gods.

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Offline Zankuu

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #39 on: October 08, 2009, 04:06:58 PM »
Edit: And how scary is it that this post is my 100th ?!?!?!

About as scary as a black cat crossing in front of me, walking under a ladder, breaking a mirror, or opening an umbrella indoors.  ;)

*Cue spooky music.
Leave nothing to chance. Overlook nothing. Combine contradictory observations. Allow yourself enough time. -Hippocrates of Cos

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #40 on: October 08, 2009, 04:11:07 PM »
the odds of a person looking at the number of posts by a member when it's *insert random number here*
Very good, except that it is not odd just for any random number, but for a weird number like "1111" or "123456789"
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Offline Zankuu

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2009, 04:21:06 PM »
the odds of a person looking at the number of posts by a member when it's *insert random number here*
Very good, except that it is not odd just for any random number, but for a weird number like "1111" or "123456789"

I find nothing weird about 1111 or any other number for that matter.
Leave nothing to chance. Overlook nothing. Combine contradictory observations. Allow yourself enough time. -Hippocrates of Cos

Offline Omen

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2009, 04:21:35 PM »
Now, simply because you happen to look at it while it hit 1111 is irrelevant, it doesn't get special meaning simply because YOU happen to see it.
What I am talking about here, is what is the probability that I could randomly have a look at the number during the period of time it was standing at "1111" it doesn't equal the probability of seeing "1112" at all
try to imagine it with a much extreme case, consider this one : "123456789" is it just a number, is it equiprobable to any other number, if your answer is yes, then I can't help you any better.

Doesn't matter, the chances of you having look at the number are not determinate upon what the number is

It being 1111 has no effect on when/how you looked at it, unless you were subconciously looking for it.

As I said before.. and I'm saying it again.. just because you look at it.. doesn't make it anymore 'special'.  This is something you're assuming, you're essentially making up 'magic' at this point and then pleading for it.
"Religious faith is the antithesis to knowledge, it is the opposition to education, and it has to act in animosity against the free exchange of ideas.  Why? Because those things are what cause harm to a religions place in society most." - Me

Offline bahramthered

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2009, 04:25:34 PM »

Doesn't matter, the chances of you having look at the number are not determinate upon what the number is

It being 1111 has no effect on when/how you looked at it, unless you were subconciously looking for it.

As I said before.. and I'm saying it again.. just because you look at it.. doesn't make it anymore 'special'.  This is something you're assuming, you're essentially making up 'magic' at this point and then pleading for it.

Even lower than subconsciously. The human brain loves patterns and recognizes them even when they're not there. For example the last 2 previous posters's before Omen post counts had the last two digits of 02 and then 03 when I read this the first time. Real pattern huh?

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2009, 04:28:57 PM »
Doesn't matter, the chances of you having look at the number are not determinate upon what the number is

It being 1111 has no effect on when/how you looked at it, unless you were subconciously looking for it.

As I said before.. and I'm saying it again.. just because you look at it.. doesn't make it anymore 'special'.  This is something you're assuming, you're essentially making up 'magic' at this point and then pleading for it.

Have you considered the case of "123456789" and thought about it?
If you have and still can't see what special about "1111" then you most probably need to learn probability or logic!
Answer this direct question please, is "1111" is as normal and frequently happening as "3"?
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Offline HAL

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2009, 04:39:14 PM »
Answer this direct question please, is "1111" is as normal and frequently happening as "3"?

With regard to post count - no. Because many more members quit posting before reaching a post count of 1111 than the ones who reach 3. Just look at the member list and sort it.

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #46 on: October 08, 2009, 04:50:14 PM »
Answer this direct question please, is "1111" is as normal and frequently happening as "3"?

With regard to post count - no. Because many more members quit posting before reaching a post count of 1111 than the ones who reach 3. Just look at the member list and sort it.
Great, is "1111" as normal as "2638"?
Hint: think of a more extreme case, compare "1111111111111111111" to "4679812457894312548" for example.
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Offline HAL

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2009, 04:58:44 PM »
Great, is "1111" as normal as "2638"?
Hint: think of a more extreme case, compare "1111111111111111111" to "4679812457894312548" for example.

Do your own damn work.

Here's the member list, sort it yourself -

http://whywontgodhealamputees.com/forums/index.php?action=mlist

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #48 on: October 08, 2009, 05:14:05 PM »
Do your own damn work.

Here's the member list, sort it yourself -

http://whywontgodhealamputees.com/forums/index.php?action=mlist
You missed the point, the question had two parts, frequency of occurrence, and being normal or usual, we have agreed that "1111" is not as frequent as "3", still the second part to go.
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #49 on: October 08, 2009, 05:19:52 PM »
Fine people, I am sure that there are people out there who could make the calculation, but I won't wait, I will make it for you and show the point behind the topic:
there are four places for integers in this case, each place can only take an integer value from 0 to 9
the probability that the first takes exactly "1" is 1/10, the probability for the second place taking exactly 1 is also 1/10, the same for the third and fourth places
Now what is the probability that each place take "1" at the same time giving "1111"?
since the value of each place is independent on the other, then the probability of "1111" is (1/10)^4 = 1/10000
but we would have the same impression(the same degree of being normal\usual) if the number was "2222" or "3333", i.e all are equivalent, then the probability is nine times the last result, i.e 9/10000(some would ask why not 10/10000, the answer is that "0000" would never appear, so we have 9 equivalent combinations for "1111" instead of 10)
that is still too small probability, how could it happen, oh, have we considered the number of trials out of which it happened once? here is the point, many things appear to be weird just because we miss-estimate the actual number of trials, an issue totally related to human memory and recalling system, I didn't take in consideration how often I look at members posts counter, nor how many active members, a man worshiping a caw, will think that the caw often answers his prayers, because when he recalls he doesn't recall the unanswered prayers,(never heard someone saying:"I once prayed and wasn't answered"), that is it, in the same manner one can show that almost everything that people think to be a "miracle" is just the reflection of normal probability of occurrence.
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Online Azdgari

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #50 on: October 08, 2009, 05:34:24 PM »
I posted a post whose number was 3333, once.  That occurs even more rarely than Gnu's minor instance of 1111.  I even went back and dug up the pst, here:

So what is the simplest cell in existence today?

I for one don't know, but could you please explain the relevance of this question to the subject matter?

There were 16 more posts on that page after mine, so although the user "sam" never did reply to my post, it's reasonable to assume that some people did see it.

My question is, so what?  Some people were almost guaranteed to have seen my post #3333, and notice the "3333" in it, on looking at that page.  I would consider it a pretty minor occurance.  You, apparently, would differ on that.  Why, M?
The highest moral human authority is copied by our Gandhi neurons through observation.

Offline RaptorJesus

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2009, 05:39:22 PM »
Fine people, I am sure that there are people out there who could make the calculation, but I won't wait, I will make it for you and show the point behind the topic:
there are four places for integers in this case, each place can only take an integer value from 0 to 9
the probability that the first takes exactly "1" is 1/10, the probability for the second place taking exactly 1 is also 1/10, the same for the third and fourth places
Now what is the probability that each place take "1" at the same time giving "1111"?
since the value of each place is independent on the other, then the probability of "1111" is (1/10)^4 = 1/10000
but we would have the same impression(the same degree of being normal\usual) if the number was "2222" or "3333", i.e all are equivalent, then the probability is nine times the last result, i.e 9/10000(some would ask why not 10/10000, the answer is that "0000" would never appear, so we have 9 equivalent combinations for "1111" instead of 10)
that is still too small probability, how could it happen, oh, have we considered the number of trials out of which it happened once? here is the point, many things appear to be weird just because we miss-estimate the actual number of trials, an issue totally related to human memory and recalling system, I didn't take in consideration how often I look at members posts counter, nor how many active members, a man worshiping a caw, will think that the caw often answers his prayers, because when he recalls he doesn't recall the unanswered prayers,(never heard someone saying:"I once prayed and wasn't answered"), that is it, in the same manner one can show that almost everything that people think to be a "miracle" is just the reflection of normal probability of occurrence.

I'll keep this subtle... you're crazy
Jamie: I understanding these things [SCUBA tanks] have about a million—or actually, it's 1.3 million—pounds of explosive force. I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like a lot.

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2009, 05:51:17 PM »
I would consider it a pretty minor occurance.  You, apparently, would differ on that.  Why, M?
I suppose you get this feeling for seeing me having very little agreements here with members, but that is not rising from my side, people here seem like having problems showing agreement with me!
anyway, no, I don't differ on that too much.
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2009, 05:55:38 PM »
I'll keep this subtle... you're crazy
Couldn't get your point!
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"a man can surely do what he wills to do, but cannot determine what he wills."
http://www.determinism.com/05042002.shtml

Offline RaptorJesus

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #54 on: October 08, 2009, 05:57:18 PM »
I'll keep this subtle... you're crazy
Couldn't get your point!

Which is probably why you're crazy :)
Jamie: I understanding these things [SCUBA tanks] have about a million—or actually, it's 1.3 million—pounds of explosive force. I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like a lot.

Online Azdgari

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #55 on: October 08, 2009, 06:00:02 PM »
I would consider it a pretty minor occurance.  You, apparently, would differ on that.  Why, M?
I suppose you get this feeling for seeing me having very little agreements here with members, but that is not rising from my side, people here seem like having problems showing agreement with me!
anyway, no, I don't differ on that too much.

If you "don't differ with me" on this, then that means that you agree it's a minor occurance.  If so, then why bring up the even more minor occurance of having seen Gnu's "post #1111"?
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Offline Master

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #56 on: October 08, 2009, 06:04:19 PM »
If you "don't differ with me" on this, then that means that you agree it's a minor occurance.  If so, then why bring up the even more minor occurance of having seen Gnu's "post #1111"?
Oh, there may be a misunderstanding, did you mean "rare" by using "minor", I thought so!
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Offline Gnu Ordure

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Re: who can work out this?
« Reply #57 on: October 08, 2009, 06:07:59 PM »
Azdgari:
Quote
Some people were almost guaranteed to have seen my post #3333, and notice the "3333" in it, on looking at that page

Not just that page, Azd. At that time, all 3333 of your posts on the forum would feature that number. The important variable is the length of time before you posted your next post. If you immediately made another post, like 30 seconds later, very few people would see the 3333. But if you went on holiday for two weeks, loads of people would notice it.

Mister:
Quote
everything that people think to be a "miracle" is just the reflection of normal probability of occurrence

er, right, but that's the opposite of what you seemed to be saying in the OP. You seemed to be saying that it was unlikely to spot a post number like 1111; now you're saying that it's normal.

Quote
people here seem like having problems showing agreement with me!

How old are you, M? Just curious.

Gnu.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2009, 06:12:36 PM by Gnu Ordure »