who can work out this?

[Master]

Here is something that looks so weird, it is about the member "Gnu Ordure", here you are what I am talking about:



Is it some kind of miracle?, I am very interested who can calculate the normal probability of such thing to happen?

[One Above All]

um... simple, he posted 1111 times?

[Master]

um... simple, he posted 1111 times?

no buddy, not that simple

[Emily]

I don't know...

On somewhat of a side note we should have a party for Hermes when he reaches 10,000 posts. If he keeps going at the rate he is now that will happen in about 75 days...
Mark your calenders.

[Omen]

Here is something that looks so weird, it is about the member "Gnu Ordure", here you are what I am talking about:

Is it some kind of miracle?, I am very interested who can calculate the normal probability of such thing to happen?

He has posted 1111 times.  I've posted 3022 times ( as of this post ), that means I have hit 1111 once and 2222 once, and I will hit 3333 once provided I continue posting.

What exactly are you not understanding?  What is weird?

[Max Kodan]

I think he's making a quip about how people always say "What are the odds that the universe is exactly like this?!"  as proof for God.  At least, that's what I got out of it.

[mram]

Well, how many times have members here hit the magic 666 posts and not been smited? Oh, what about 1000? I didn't hear any bells or see party streamers pop out of the walls..
It's just 1111... as Porky would say,,,,abadea, abadea, abadea...big deal..
Just for clarification I have always been able to mimic Porky Pig and over the years have worked out the spelling of his stuttering 

[monkeymind]

OK, Ok I give. WTF are you talking about?

[Master]

He has posted 1111 times.  I've posted 3022 times ( as of this post ), that means I have hit 1111 once and 2222 once, and I will hit 3333 once provided I continue posting.

What exactly are you not understanding?  What is weird?

That is a very good point, but the situation should still seem weird.

I think he's making a quip about how people always say "What are the odds that the universe is exactly like this?!"  as proof for God.  At least, that's what I got out of it.

Not exactly, something much like this, I really want to point out to the subject of musicales, they just come out of ignorance.

[Master]

Well, how many times have members here hit the magic 666 posts and not been smited? Oh, what about 1000? I didn't hear any bells or see party streamers pop out of the walls..
It's just 1111

No, 666 has a much lower  normal probability to occur than  1111, so do 1000.

[Zankuu]

No, 666 has a much lower  normal probability to occur than  1111, so do 1000.

And why would you think that? If I continue to post, I'll rack up the pointless tally of posts under my avatar. 400,401,402,403, and so on toward 1111, 1112,1113.

[Master]

No, 666 has a much lower  normal probability to occur than  1111, so do 1000.

And why would you think that? If I continue to post, I'll rack up the pointless tally of posts under my avatar. 400,401,402,403, and so on toward 1111, 1112,1113.

That is true, but the question is simply, how frequent does something like "1111" happen and noticed?

[monkeymind]

Well I don't understand probability or statistics and all that, but doesn't the fact that Gnu posted 1111 times mean there is a probability of 1:1 that he will post 1111 times? Is it weird to assume that he will post 1112 times? Please splain it to me.

[monkeymind]

how frequent does something like "1111" happen and noticed?

Don't know. How often does it get noticed and then discussed. Only once I hope.

[Master]

Well I don't understand probability or statistics and all that, but doesn't the fact that Gnu posted 1111 times mean there is a probability of 1:1 that he will post 1111 times?

That is true, the probability that he would do before doing was surely 1, but since we don't know all factors that determined\caused this to happen, we should talk about probability.

Is it weird to assume that he will post 1112 times? Please splain it to me.

Fine, 1112 happens very frequently since we would have the same impression if it was "1113" or "1114" or "1115", but we got a different and rare impression when it is "1111" or "2222" and so on, so it happens very infrequently.

[monkeymind]

Ok, yesterday I looked at the clock at 4:44 pm. Often I look at the clock and it is something like that, perhaps 3:33. One time I looked at a clock and it was 01:23:45. How does one figure the probability of something like this happening 1 time, or multiplt times?

[Omen]

Well I don't understand probability or statistics and all that, but doesn't the fact that Gnu posted 1111 times mean there is a probability of 1:1 that he will post 1111 times?

That is true, the probability that he would do before doing was surely 1, but since we don't know all factors that determined\caused this to happen, we should talk about probability.

1 and it will always be 1.

Is it weird to assume that he will post 1112 times? Please splain it to me.

Fine, 1112 happens very frequently since we would have the same impression if it was "1113" or "1114" or "1115", but we got a different and rare impression when it is "1111" or "2222" and so on, so it happens very infrequently.

There is no difference between 1112 and 1111 they represent 2 numbers that if we counted 1 to 1113 there would be a probability of 1 that it occurs.

The fact you that you notice it at 1111 is irrelevant, as irrelevant if you had noticed it at 1112.  You're assining special meaning where none exist, then pleading for special meaning that you can't justify.

[Master]

There is no difference between 1112 and 1111 they represent 2 numbers that if we counted 1 to 1113 there would be a probability of 1 that it occurs.

Sorry, but you just can't sense probability
To help you, in a much larger scale, let in playing cards one player gets the same set of 4 cards for a whole 20 deals(52 cards deals), the probability of such to happen is unimaginably small, let it happens before your eyes, will you say: well it is just 4 cards

[Omen]

There is no difference between 1112 and 1111 they represent 2 numbers that if we counted 1 to 1113 there would be a probability of 1 that it occurs.

Sorry, but you just can't sense probability

What?  If you count from 1 to 10

There is a probability of exactly 1 that you hit 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

You will hit that number what you do, it is inevitable when you count to 10.  How stupid can you possibly be?

And again.. you've omitted most of post and responded to a very obscure part of it that you can't even explain what is wrong with it.

To help you, in a much larger scale, let in playing cards one player gets the same set of 4 cards for a whole 20 deals(52 cards deals), the probability of such to happen is unimaginably small, let it happens before your eyes, will you say: well it is just 4 cards

This analogy has nothing to do with hitting 1 integer in a list of integers that will always include every integer in that list.  1111 will always appear in a least of 1111 or higher, its probability for doing so is always 1.

You seeing it as it hits 1111 is irrelevant.  You have to explain why it is irrelevant.  Then you could probably explain what the hell are you even getting at?

[Gnu Ordure]

Some of you may be interested in the numbers of some of my other posts:

1 ,11, 111, 1111
2, 22, 222
3, 33, 333
4, 44, 444
5, 55, 555
6, 66, 666
7, 77, 777
8, 88, 888
9, 99, 999
10, 100, 1000
20, 200
30, 300
40, 400
50, 500
60, 600
70, 700
80, 800
90, 900
123, 234, 345, 456, 789
321, 432, 543, 654, 765, 876, 987
Let's not forget the primes:
2        3        5        7      11      13      17     19      23      29
31      37      41      43     47      53      59     61      67      71
73      79      83      89     97      101    103    107    109    113
127    131    137    139    149    151    157    163    167    173
179    181    191    193    197    199    211    223    227    229
233    239    241    251    257    263    269    271    277    281
283    293    307    311    313    317    331    337    347    349
353    359    367    373    379    383    389    397    401    409
419    421    431    433    439    443    449    457    461    463
467    479    487    491    499    503    509    521    523    541
547    557    563    569    571    577    587    593    599    601
607    613    617    619    631    641    643    647    653    659
661    673    677    683    691    701    709    719    727    733
739    743    751    757    761    769    773    787    797    809
811    821    823    827    829    839    853    857    859    863
877    881    883    887    907    911    919    929    937    941
947    953    967    971    977    983    991    997   1009   1013
1019   1021   1031   1033   1039   1049   1051   1061   1063   1069
1087   1091   1093   1097   1103   1109


Please keep a look-out for my forthcoming book, Gnu Ordure's Big Book of Post Numbers, where I finally explain in detail the story behind each of these numbers, how they came to be chosen to appear with me on WWGHA, what they mean, and what their individual probabilities are.

Read the heart-breaking and yet inspiring story of number 666, who overcame incredible odds and horrendous prejudice and numberism before finally making his triumphant public appearance on WWGHA in April 09.

Order now to avoid disappointment.

[monnie]

I can't even understand what the poster is asking. I read the sentence and I think some of the words are in wrong places. I have no idea what this thread is about.

[Omen]

Some of you may be interested in the numbers of some of my other posts:

1 ,11, 111, 1111
2, 22, 222
3, 33, 333
4, 44, 444
5, 55, 555
6, 66, 666
7, 77, 777
8, 88, 888
9, 99, 999
10, 100, 1000
20, 200
30, 300
40, 400
50, 500
60, 600
70, 700
80, 800
90, 900
123, 234, 345, 456, 789
321, 432, 543, 654, 765, 876, 987
Let's not forget the primes:
2        3        5        7      11      13      17     19      23      29
31      37      41      43     47      53      59     61      67      71
73      79      83      89     97      101    103    107    109    113
127    131    137    139    149    151    157    163    167    173
179    181    191    193    197    199    211    223    227    229
233    239    241    251    257    263    269    271    277    281
283    293    307    311    313    317    331    337    347    349
353    359    367    373    379    383    389    397    401    409
419    421    431    433    439    443    449    457    461    463
467    479    487    491    499    503    509    521    523    541
547    557    563    569    571    577    587    593    599    601
607    613    617    619    631    641    643    647    653    659
661    673    677    683    691    701    709    719    727    733
739    743    751    757    761    769    773    787    797    809
811    821    823    827    829    839    853    857    859    863
877    881    883    887    907    911    919    929    937    941
947    953    967    971    977    983    991    997   1009   1013
1019   1021   1031   1033   1039   1049   1051   1061   1063   1069
1087   1091   1093   1097   1103   1109


Please keep a look-out for my forthcoming book, Gnu Ordure's Big Book of Post Numbers, where I finally explain in detail the story behind each of these numbers, how they came to be chosen to appear with me on WWGHA, what they mean, and what their individual probabilities are.

Read the heart-breaking and yet inspiring story of number 666, who overcame incredible odds and horrendous prejudice and numberism before finally making his triumphant public appearance on WWGHA in April 09.

Order now to avoid disappointment.

And about 2.2% of the posters on the forum have already hit every single number Gnu has ( including myself ) and more.

That is over 1 out of 50, and the likelihood of seeing it is also depending on the activity of the members on the forum.  Which it is more likely that you're going to have encounters with the more active members on the forum who will naturally have more post.  Not to mention the ever increasing # of posters who approach that # and onward, which there are about another .5% that are within a 100 posts or less of it.

[One Above All]

the variables are too many to consider calculating the odds of reaching 1111 posts
end of topic

[Master]

And about 2.2% of the posters on the forum have already hit every single number Gnu has ( including myself ) and more.

That is over 1 out of 50, and the likelihood of seeing it is also depending on the activity of the members on the forum.  Which it is more likely that you're going to have encounters with the more active members on the forum who will naturally have more post.  Not to mention the ever increasing # of posters who approach that # and onward, which there are about another .5% that are within a 100 posts or less of it.

Sorry, had to go for a while,
Fine, people, we are on the same side, really, Omen, you have just get to another important determinant in calculating the normal probability of "1111" posts, the number of active members whose posts counter are around, I am not saying it is so improbable, in contrary, I will calculate the probability for you if no one show and say he can, I am just defending against Omen's claim that there is nothing special about "1111" more than "1112"

[Gnu Ordure]

monkey-mind:

Ok, yesterday I looked at the clock at 4:44 pm. Often I look at the clock and it is something like that, perhaps 3:33. One time I looked at a clock and it was 01:23:45

Last night I glanced at my clock and it said 6:66 pm.

I woke up screaming.

And about 2.2% of the posters on the forum have already hit every single number Gnu has ( including myself ) and more.

Wtf, Omen? Have other people been using my numbers? That's plagiarism. You'll be hearing from my people.

[Master]

Some of you may be interested in the numbers of some of my other posts:

1 ,11, 111, 1111
2, 22, 222
3, 33, 333
4, 44, 444

Nothing you have mentioned is as improbable as "1111", don't you agree that "1111" happens much more infrequently than "11"

[Zankuu]

Please keep a look-out for my forthcoming book, Gnu Ordure's Big Book of Post Numbers, where I finally explain in detail the story behind each of these numbers, how they came to be chosen to appear with me on WWGHA, what they mean, and what their individual probabilities are.

Read the heart-breaking and yet inspiring story of number 666, who overcame incredible odds and horrendous prejudice and numberism before finally making his triumphant public appearance on WWGHA in April 09.

Order now to avoid disappointment.

Haha  



Edit: On a side note, something tells me the OP finds the Bible Code interesting.

[Seppuku]

Last night I glanced at my clock and it said 6:66 pm.

Wait...what?


I often notice the clock when it is 13:37, those who hang around the geeky parts of the net, will know that's an internet slang way of saying "elite" - could this be a sign that I am one of the elite, say, the chosen one? To do what I wonder?

[Master]

Ok, yesterday I looked at the clock at 4:44 pm. Often I look at the clock and it is something like that, perhaps 3:33. One time I looked at a clock and it was 01:23:45. How does one figure the probability of something like this happening 1 time, or multiplt times?

Me too, it happens very frequently with me, the probability of such is  10\(10*10*10) = 1/100
let you noticed it 5 times, the probability is then (1/100)^5 = 1/10000000000 (one over ten billions), isn't that extremely improbable?

Edit; Oh sorry, the probability in the clock stuff isn't as I established above, I considered that each of the three places of time units (hours, and two places for minutes) I considered them as if they all could take valuse ranging from 0 to 9, but actually the first place for minutes can only take values ranging from 0 to 5, so the calculation is not correct, but still it is something around that