Author Topic: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution  (Read 471 times)

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Offline Truth OT

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A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« on: July 26, 2013, 01:34:22 PM »
Has anyone encountered these types of challenges before?

http://www.y-str.org/evolution-competition/


Offline One Above All

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2013, 02:08:57 PM »
Where's that nifty image of text slowly changing colors? On a related note, where are my $1000?
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Offline jdawg70

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2013, 02:11:09 PM »
The lack of defining what 'grand scale evolution' is more or less invalidates the contest, or at least makes the earnestness of the contest suspect.

But assuming it's just some sneaky way of saying "Micro-evolution yay!  Macro-evolution nay!", then it appears to all hinge on what he's labeled as the Permutation Problem.  Strictly speaking, what he presents as the permutation problem simply doesn't match with reality.  He seems to be under the impression that all permutations of mutations are realizable, when the fact of the matter is the known laws of physics establish much smaller upper bounds of the number of realizable permutations that can be expected to occur.

I wonder if this guy is incredibly surprised whenever he plays poker.  "Holy crap!  A 4 of diamonds, a 3 of hearts, a king of spades, a 9 of diamonds, and a jack of hearts!  What are the odds of that?"
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Offline Aaron123

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2013, 02:19:25 PM »
Quote
I am happy to offer 1000$ prize to anyone who can provide an explanation or scientific proof that evolution on grand-scale is true. The competition began on 24-July-2013 and will continue until a winner is selected.

Rules:

1.This is a scientific competition. All scientific methods like geological columns which can be tested and calibrated using fossil evidences and radiometric dating can be used and are allowed. Observed and documented evolution in short run can also be used in calculations.

At first, I wondered; why not just ask a scientist?  After all, such a person would be able to answer your questions better than a layperson could.

Then I saw this.


Quote
2.Non-scientific methods or any scientist’s opinions are not allowed.

Use scientific methods and reasoning, but not actual scientists?  How disingenuous...
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Online jaimehlers

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2013, 02:20:15 PM »
I've heard of them, at least in other situations.  They're somewhere between stupid and idiotic.

What this person is doing is carefully setting up his challenge so that it sounds scientific, but setting the goalposts at an absurdly high level.  He's essentially demanding that people prove that evolution was able to pick a needle in a haystack, as well as demanding an explanation for why chimpanzees differ by 150 million base pairs (5% of the genome) whereas humans only differ by 3 million (0.1% of the genome).  He also makes the classic mistake of demanding an explanation for why the total number of possible permutations exceeds the number of electrons in the visible universe and thus was able to 'defy' science and mathematics to produce a specific species.

Yeah.  I don't think he really understands how statistical chance works, never mind evolution.

I can give a fairly concise explanation for why his reasoning is so flawed using only 20-sided dice.  The chances of rolling any number on a d20 is 5%.  Well, each successive roll also has only a 5% chance of coming up.  Yet the chances of those two rolls coming up as they did is .05 * .05, or .0025 (0.25%).  Add a third d20; still a 5% chance of getting any particular number, but it decreases the odds of that specific combination to .000125 (0.0125%).  Add a fourth, and the odds decrease to .00000625 (0.000625%).  Add a fifth, and the odds decrease to .0000003125 (0.00003125%).  Just five d20 rolls, and you have a phenomenally small chance of that particular set of numbers having come up.  Barely three-hundred-thousandths of a percent of a chance.

If I add just one more d20 roll, that decreases the odds of coming up with that particular set of numbers to a bit better than one-in-a-million.  Amazing...you can get a one-in-a-million (107) chance by rolling 6d20.  I wonder how many dice rolls you'd have to add to get 2150000000?

Offline ParkingPlaces

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2013, 02:49:37 PM »
They want responses submitted only in Microsoft Word format.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Don't they know that we have evolved out of that?

Don't enter. 1000$ Australian is only $918 in U.S. Dollars. Not worth it.

Besides, he (the person doing this) wouldn't know an good answer if it evolved teeth and bit him in the ass.

Not everyone is entitled to their own opinion. They're all entitled to mine though.

Offline mrbiscoop

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2013, 05:55:26 PM »
^^Exactly. Way too many hoops to jump through for 1K.
    Assuming this individual is a creationist I'm sure his standards for evidence are considerably lower than what he/she expects of us.
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Offline DumpsterFire

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2013, 05:21:09 AM »
Only $1K? Dude doesn't seem very confident in his position. James Randi has offered a cool million for proof of the supernatural. Evolution guy could at least make it worth our while.
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Offline One Above All

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2013, 05:22:23 AM »
Only $1K? Dude doesn't seem very confident in his position. James Randi has offered a cool million for proof of the supernatural. Evolution guy could at least make it worth our while.

Imagine if someone actually won his challenge? He knows it's not that hard. He just doesn't accept the truth.
The truth is absolute. Life forms are specks of specks (...) of specks of dust in the universe.
Why settle for normal, when you can be so much more? Why settle for something, when you can have everything?
We choose our own gods.

A.K.A.: Blaziken_rjcf/Lucifer/All In One.

Offline viocjit

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2013, 01:16:54 PM »
I'm certain that nobody will won because they are creationist and the majority of them will still believe that evolution theory is a hoax all their life.

Offline Azdgari

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2013, 02:02:28 PM »
Didn't Kent Hovind issue a similar challenge way back?
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Offline Irish

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Re: A Challenge to the Theory of Evolution
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2013, 02:09:33 PM »
Quote
The answer must clearly explain how natural selection which still depends on these random mutations was able to defy science and mathematics to successfully pick a needle in a haystack for a new species to be formed.

This is at the very end of the link.  It explains exactly how I know he doesn't understand evolution.  First of all, natural selection is not an entity or an agent. There is nothing that actually selects the mutation/organism to move on.  It is a phenomenon borne out of populations competing for space, food, water, mates, etc.  Secondly, a single mutation does not make a new species.
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