World Population Day

[Nick]

Congrats everyone !!!  Today is World Population Day (July 11th).  We have 7+ billion in the world now, project 9+ billion by 2050, and 11+ billion by 2100.  That's a lot of bodies on this small rock.  And what are we doing here in the states...nothing except trying to restrict abortion and deny climate change.

It could be worse.  In the Philippines, some of their politicians are trying to make masturbation murder.  A form of genocide.  Spilling the seed and all.  Could be where the GOP will be heading next.

On the bright side, there will be more babies for atheists.

[ParkingPlaces]

What if they gave a World Population Day and nobody showed up?

Oh yea, that's next year. Sorry. Forget I mentioned it.

[mrbiscoop]

   The human race is a virus / cancer on the planet Earth!

[LoriPinkAngel]

.  In the Philippines, some of their politicians are trying to make masturbation murder.  A form of genocide.  Spilling the seed and all.  Could be where the GOP will be heading next.

That only applies to men, of course.

[William]

How many souls does God actually need in heaven? 

Once we hit the quota and get God off our backs perhaps we should put roast babies back on the atheist chef's specials menu 

[SkyWriting]

Congrats everyone !!!  Today is World Population Day (July 11th).  We have 7+ billion in the world now, project 9+ billion by 2050, and 11+ billion by 2100.  That's a lot of bodies on this small rock.

The majority of humanity is alive today.
If you get out much you'll notice a lot of room left.

[William]

If you get out much you'll notice a lot of room left.

That "room" consists of deserts, habitats under pressure, and farming lands required to produce food for the billions. 

The major fisheries in the oceans are buckling under over-fishing, and the oceans themselves becoming filled with plastic - killing birds, fish and turtles.  Ocean warming is already happening, and the catastrophic acidification of oceans is looking more and more likely to occur.

Adding more people into the "room" is no solution.   

[El Guapo]

Birth rates are on the decline in most developed nations:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/currentevents/2012/10/16/warning-bell-for-developed-countries-declining-birth-rates/

Women in these countries are more educated, have more career opportunities outside the house, and have access to health care.  They are putting off marriage/families and are less restrained by the socioeconomic and religious pressures exerted on their mothers and grandmothers. Unfortunately, this progress is leading to a decline in the necessary replacement rates.  Watch Japan over the next several decades.  Lessons will need to be learned.

[screwtape]

necessary replacement rates. 

Necessary for what?  What makes them necessary?

[neopagan]

the Duggars have most zip codes covered... so spilling the seed on the ground is ok

[El Guapo]

Necessary for what?  What makes them necessary?
[/quote]

Rates of reproduction necessary to keep a population stable.  For developed countries the rate is 2.1  As countries dip below this rate, the population ages.  Imagine a society where a large portion of the population is geriatric.  As older workers leave the work force (retirement, death) there are fewer young workers to take their place.

[screwtape]

So population must always be growing?  Is that not a problem, given finite resources?

[neopagan]

aren't some jobs losing workers?  forexample, we didn't have to replace all those folks picking corn when the combine was invented... 

[ParkingPlaces]

Those who calculate such things seem to think that our population will peak at about 9 billion and then start going down a bit. What they know about the sex life of folks fifty years from now I don't know, but the growth has to stop somewhere. Right now in the US farm land is being gobbled up for subdivisions and malls and there is a limit. Yea, there is a lot of farmland but if everyone starts living on ex-farm land and the world keeps growing, eventually there will be none and unless we find a way to eat landfills, we'll be in big trouble.

The valley where I live was, a mere 25 years ago, very heavy into agriculture. Potatos, apples, grain and cattle were ubiquitous. Now very little of the land is used for farming and most is inhabited by new people living in the valley.  And most of the grass crops are for horse feed, the one animal still here in abundance. Because retirees are big into their horsies. Because of all that,  the agricultural industry has come to a grinding halt.

Soylent green may not be that far off folks. At least the horse version.

[El Guapo]

I'm more looking at the issue from a socioeconomic stand point.  Resource constraints/allocations are a different issue and should be considered separate from population rates and further by geography and category (energy, food, building materials).

Considering population rates, it depends on the country/society under consideration.  For modern post-agrarian, industrialized developed countries (US, Canada, most of Europe, etc) it is critical to maintain (on average) replacement level reproduction rates.  Failure to replenish/maintain workers places sever strain on services and production and can lead to economic stagnation/collapse. 

We need look no further than Detroit to see what happens to an area when the population decreases.  No money for public services, fire departments, utilities, schools.  The remaining residents struggle, property values fall, crime sky-rockets.

[Dante]

Failure to replenish/maintain workers places sever strain on services and production and can lead to economic stagnation/collapse. 

Huh, I thought that's what the purpose of immigrants.

[El Guapo]

Job relocation and industry focus shift are fine, healthy even.  The US has a history of such . . .evolution  

Agriculture -> Factory Worker -> Services

So long as education, innovation and free markets are encouraged/supported by the current generation then the next generation (see previous posts about replacement rates) will continue to have opportunities to prosper.

[El Guapo]

Failure to replenish/maintain workers places sever strain on services and production and can lead to economic stagnation/collapse. 

Huh, I thought that's what the purpose of immigrants.

Immigrants certainly do help keep up the population levels. Per the latest census numbers, Hispanics are driving force of population increase over the last decade in the US.  Legal residents or not, immigrants bring in fresh bodies/ideas, support GDP production and pay taxes (either Federal/State if legal and/or sales tax on all purchases). 

Unfortunately, Hispanics tend to be a largely catholic group and further contribute to theistic social issues (Pope says NO CONDOMS!) and influence non-secular government polices and candidates. (Marc Rubio)

[Samothec]

We need look no further than Detroit to see what happens to an area when the population decreases.  No money for public services, fire departments, utilities, schools.  The remaining residents struggle, property values fall, crime sky-rockets.

You have that backwards. The jobs dried up in Detroit so the money went away and now people are leaving.

[Dante]

Failure to replenish/maintain workers places sever strain on services and production and can lead to economic stagnation/collapse. 

Huh, I thought that's what the purpose of immigrants.

Immigrants certainly do help keep up the population levels. Per the latest census numbers, Hispanics are driving force of population increase over the last decade in the US.  Legal residents or not, immigrants bring in fresh bodies/ideas, support GDP production and pay taxes (either Federal/State if legal and/or sales tax on all purchases). 

Unfortunately, Hispanics tend to be a largely catholic group and further contribute to theistic social issues (Pope says NO CONDOMS!) and influence non-secular government polices and candidates. (Marc Rubio)

I didn't say they didn't do those things you claim. I only claimed they keep the population levels in our country maintained, in response to this:

Failure to replenish/maintain workers places sever strain on services and production and can lead to economic stagnation/collapse. 

Immigrants certainly do help keep up the population levels. Per the latest census numbers, Hispanics are driving force of population increase over the last decade in the US.  Legal residents or not, immigrants bring in fresh bodies/ideas, support GDP production and pay taxes (either Federal/State if legal and/or sales tax on all purchases). 

So why again do we need more population?

edit for clarity.

[El Guapo]

Dante - Sorry, I didn't mean to stage my response as a restatement of your comment or to put words in your mouth.  Those were wholly my thoughts on the subject of population and immigration which I was sharing with the board.

I think my earlier posts broadly characterize why population is an economic necessity and included articles (Forbes) and reference to locations (Japan/Detroit) where they are struggling with economic difficulties resulting from decreases in population and/or aging societies.  Was there a particular post or comment for which you wanted to discuss?

[Dante]

Dante - Sorry, I didn't mean to stage my response as a restatement of your comment or to put words in your mouth. 

No worries at all. I knew you were just expanding on your idea.

And welcome to the forums.

I think my earlier posts broadly characterize why population is an economic necessity and included articles (Forbes) and reference to locations (Japan/Detroit) where they are struggling with economic difficulties resulting from decreases in population and/or aging societies.  Was there a particular post or comment for which you wanted to discuss?

Not particularly, just the concept in general. You seemed to say that population increase is vital, and that we don't have enough headcount (or are in danger, anyway) but concede that immigration is a viable replacement for increased birthrates. So, which is it? Is immigration viable, or is it not?

[El Guapo]

Thanks for the welcome Dante!  I just found this site/board last night and lost about 4 hours of sleep navigating through posts/articles!  Interesting posts and some dedicated/knowledgeable members!

It's interesting.  In the US at least, immigration (and the high reproduction rates of those immigrants) is offsetting the worldwide trend of decreasing reproduction in Developed countries.  I would expect though, that as those immigrants become naturalized and progress through subsequent generations, they would experience the same benefits in education, healthcare and career mobility as their Native counterparts.  As a result, we should see their reproduction rates decrease as well (over decades of course).

So immigration a viable counter to decreased native reproduction rates?  In the short term, yes.  Long term . . . maybe/probably not? 

To reference Japan again, they are not experiencing the same influx in immigration as the US.  So their decrease in reproduction should continue to fall  (if not acted upon by government policy or social change).  Japan will be interesting to watch.

[Dante]

Thanks for the welcome Dante!  I just found this site/board last night and lost about 4 hours of sleep navigating through posts/articles!  Interesting posts and some dedicated/knowledgeable members!

Yeah, this place is an amazing congregation of people, couldn't agree more!

It's interesting.  In the US at least, immigration (and the high reproduction rates of those immigrants) is offsetting the worldwide trend of decreasing reproduction in Developed countries.  I would expect though, that as those immigrants become naturalized and progress through subsequent generations, they would experience the same benefits in education, healthcare and career mobility as their Native counterparts.  As a result, we should see their reproduction rates decrease as well (over decades of course).

With any luck. As has been stated before, the earth can only hold so many inhabitants before it's resources run dry. After that happens, it wont much matter what the economy looks like.

So immigration a viable counter to decreased native reproduction rates?  In the short term, yes.  Long term . . . maybe/probably not? 

To reference Japan again, they are not experiencing the same influx in immigration as the US.  So their decrease in reproduction should continue to fall  (if not acted upon by government policy or social change).  Japan will be interesting to watch.

Yes, very. I'll go back and take a look at your links tonight.

[Backspace]

Every time I fly on a commercial airliner seems like world population day 

Oh the huge manatee.