Author Topic: DNC Convention  (Read 44 times)

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Online Nick

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DNC Convention
« on: Today at 08:08:48 AM »
The Dems had an interesting 1st night.  Doom and gloom from the GOP was missing.  Mrs. Obama gave an uplifting speech.  She is good.  Bernie supporters still in a wish world.  Saw a poll today where Trump was up by 3 points.  That is scary.
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Tide goes in, tide goes out !!!

Offline jetson

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Re: DNC Convention
« Reply #1 on: Today at 08:19:14 AM »
Don't worry about the "polls". The real statisticians will eventually sort out the mess that we are currently seeing. A good poll is one that can clearly show its distributions and its margin of error. It can also clearly explain its methodology, including how it gathers data. There is also the need for a weighting algorithm to balance its demographic cells with a strong representaiton of the actual voter population, possibly the most difficult part to get right.

One last thing we all need to remember. Getting representative samples is very difficult. Bias is built into almost every channel (including phone calls, internet forms, face-to-face, snail mail, etc.) At the least, the best polls would find a way to allow all options for gathering data - and each of these would have a well tested and normalized instrument (survey) that reduces bias as much as possible. You simply cannot get an unbiased survey result using only phone, or only text, or internet, etc.

In my opinion, the biggest problem with most of these polls is that they are gathered quickly in the most convenient way for the pollsters, not the responders.

As always, I am not an expert, so take this with some skepticism.

Online Emily

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Re: DNC Convention
« Reply #2 on: Today at 10:19:01 AM »
I'm not really concerned with the polls, even though I do follow them on an almost weekly basis only to see who's up. They aren't a really good indicator of who will win the election. And now it makes sense that Trump would be in the lead. He just ended his convention so all sorts of people are going to be excited for him, and it'll show up in the polls. Once the DNC is over I'm willing to bet that Hilary will be back in the lead.
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Online LoriPinkAngel

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Re: DNC Convention
« Reply #3 on: Today at 10:25:08 AM »
I'm not really concerned with the polls, even though I do follow them on an almost weekly basis only to see who's up. They aren't a really good indicator of who will win the election. And now it makes sense that Trump would be in the lead. He just ended his convention so all sorts of people are going to be excited for him, and it'll show up in the polls. Once the DNC is over I'm willing to bet that Hilary will be back in the lead.

I believe candidates almost always see a favorable bump in the polls immediately after their conventions.
It doesn't make sense to let go of something you've had for so long.  But it also doesn't make sense to hold on when there's actually nothing there.

Online Nick

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Re: DNC Convention
« Reply #4 on: Today at 11:20:07 AM »
I usually just pay attention to Nate Silver's polls.
Yo, put that in your pipe and smoke it.  Quit ragging on my Lord.

Tide goes in, tide goes out !!!

Online Nam

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Re: DNC Convention
« Reply #5 on: Today at 01:31:45 PM »
The Dems had an interesting 1st night.  Doom and gloom from the GOP was missing.  Mrs. Obama gave an uplifting speech.  She is good.  Bernie supporters still in a wish world.  Saw a poll today where Trump was up by 3 points.  That is scary.

That's national. National doesn't really matter, you have to look at the states. The ones that, no matter what, statistically will always vote one way, the ones that lean a certain way, and those stuck in the middle and could go any direction. Those are the only ones that matter, and by registered voters not likely voters or the like.

Right now it sits like this:



It most likely will be this:



And it could be this:




-Nam
"presumptions are the bitch of all assumptions" -- me