2012 US Presidential Election

[Nam]

National opinion polls have them tied but popular votes don't mean anything as we all know.

But state opinion polling gives Obama a considerable lead. I don't think Ohio is a battleground state. The only battleground state, with some of the smaller electoral states, I feel is Florida.

Personally, I think Obama will win.

-Nam

[Timo]

Yeah, I think Obama's basically got this.  The Republicans, understandably, have this strategy where they're trying to run basically a referendum on Obama.  That's fine if you're running a known quantity like a John McCain against him, but I'm not sure that it will work with a Mitt Romney, who is unknown to most of the country and who, I think, has been pretty terrible as a campaigner thus far.  I mean dude, how are you going to go on a foreign policy trip and have a hard time dealing with our second best friends in the world (after Canada) Great Britain.  Don't get me wrong, if the economy remains stagnant or gets worse, I think that Romney's got a shot but I wouldn't bet on him.

Also, I'm wondering about the calculation that the potential Romney running-mates are making.  I think Bobby Jindal would probably be the best choice for Romney as far as the Veepstakes go, and that if he were to take it, he'd be very well-suited for a 2016 run.  But for whatever reason, I doubt that it's going to happen.  My money would be on a Rob Portman or Tim Pawlenty, or worse, a Marco Rubio nomination for VP.

In any case, as a person of color, a Negro even, I would love, love, love to see an election in which there is no major party ticket that doesn't include a person of color....especially if it's Rubio.  On a personal level, I could tell my kids, "yeah they voted out the Black guy, but that's because they really liked the Cuban guy."

[Mr. Blackwell]

The thing I found interesting about the 2008 elections was the fact that the Democrat party set the new standard by having both a black man and a woman as there top two choices. Either way, they were guaranteed to make history.

The Republican response was to add a female vice presidential candidate. So, if McCain had won that would STILL have been a historical milestone in this country. First female vice.

I was prepared to vote for Hilary and might have voted for Obama if she were his vice presidential nominee....maybe.

The main reason I didn't vote for Obama was because I didn't want one party having control over the house, senate AND white house. I know it sounds petty but I just can't imagine what would happen with that much one sidedness. If the house and senate were under Republican control at that time. I would have refused to vote for McCain.

At this point I am very seriously considering a protest vote.

I am thinking of writing my own name in for President because ultimately I think that the power players on both sides are working towards the same goal and I don't think they give two fucks about me.

[Nick]

I hate to say this but I think it is already over and Romney is going to win.  The mountain of money that is coming soon will push him into the lead.  He has very powerful people behind the scene pushing the right buttons.  Koch Brothers, etc. are not putting this amount of money into this for nothing.  Voter suppression has already taken place.  I see it as a sad day for the country and a start to major changes that will affect all of us and not in a good way.  I truly hope I'm wrong on this one.  It would not be the 1st time an election was set ahead of time.  God help us and since there is not one we are screwed.

[Mr. Blackwell]

Here's the the thing I don't get Nick

You and others believe that America is doomed if Romney wins. I hear people on the other side saying the EXACT same thing if Obama wins again.

EXACT SAME THING!

As for me...I think it's business as usual and we are doomed either way because the safest bet is to put money on both sides. I'd be willing to bet my skimpy paycheck that every election since the second one ever held has been a false dilemma.

[Nick]

Well, the other side is wrong.  Obama does not want to dismantel the social safety net, he does not want us in another war, he does not want to give the country away to the rich and corporations.  That is a big change and it is coming if the other side gets in.  There did not use to be a big difference when one side won over another.  That has all changed now.  With Karl Rove and the boys back in power it will be a whole new ballgame and if you are not an old rich white man you are in trouble too.

[Mr. Blackwell]

I respect you and more than that, I like you so all I am going to say is that I have never heard a republican argue in favor of dismantling the social safety net.

Perhaps they have[1]. All I am saying is that I haven't heard that coming from the right.

1.	I don't hear everything after all

[Nick]

The following are proposed cuts by the US House and Senate over the budget and also by republican governors the past couple years that affect the safety net:  Cuts to...social security and age raised to qualify, medicare cuts in the form of a voucher type program and age raised also, limit numbers who qualify for Medicaid, fight universal health care for all, keeping millions without and making us a beggar nation for health care, planned parenthood elimination...this program does so much good for low income and poor women in many ways, food stamp cuts,  WIC cuts, unemployment insurance limits in a down economy, cutting completely the Consumer Protection Agency...it tries to protect us from banks and credit card rip offs, programs to help the poor with utility bills especially in winter and heat waves, cuts to education K-12 and programs, cuts to Pell Grants and student loans for higher education, Early Childhood programs like Head Start and Parents as Teachers cut or eliminated in some states, mental health programs cut to the bone or eliminated putting mentally ill in prisons, cuts to most social programs and food kitchens.  I'm sure I missed some...but we need to make sure we get those tax breaks to the rich.

[Nam]

Timo, Nick, Mr. Blackwell,

I know Romney is bringing in more money, and Republican Governors in varying "Battleground states" who are making it more difficult for Democrats, or those who normally vote Democratic, to vote but Holder is fighting that based on Constitutional grounds, and seems to be making leeway in certain states.

But when you have a state like Tennessee becoming a "Battleground" state, that does put certain things into perspective. Obama will get all the Blue states, including Ohio. Florida is up for grabs but isn't it always?

People who make "protest votes", I really don't understand them. Especially those from consistant states that always vote one way. They don't like the person they voted in, that actually isn't for their political views, yet they voted for them, and complain afterward. You're not punishing anyone but yourselves: plain and simple.

Rubio will not be picked. He has less experience in Office than peoples views of Obama's experience.

Most of the opinions posed here, are from a "National" standpoint. You have to look at things from a "State" perspective. What states will favor who?

Obama: California -55, Colorado - 9, Connecticut - 7, Hawaii - 4, Illinois- 20, Maine - 4, Maryland - 10,  Massachusetts - 11, Michigan - 16, Minnesota - 10, Nevada - 6, New Hampshire - 4, New Jersey - 14, New Mexico - 5, New York - 29, Deleware - 3, Ohio - 18, Oregon - 7,Pennsylvania - 20, Rhode Island - 4, Vermont - 3, Virginia - 13, Washington - 12, Washington, D.C. - 3, Wisconsin - 10, Iowa - 6 = 303[1]

Romney: Alabama - 9, Arizona - 11, Alaska - 3, Arkansas - 6, Georgia - 16, Kansas - 6, Kentucky - 8, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Missouri - 10, Montana - 3, Nebreska - 5, North Dakota - 3, Oklahoma - 7, South Carolina - 9, South Dakota - 3, Texas - 38, Utah - 6, West Virginia - 5, Wyoming - 3 = 176[2]

Battleground states: Tennessee - 11, North Carolina - 15, Florida - 29 = 55

270 is needed to win, even if Romney picked up all 3 of those states, or perhaps even Iowa, he'd still wouldn't have enough. He would have to get Ohio, and Obama has a big lead in that state according to latest polling.

Romney may have the Popular vote locked but as I said: it doesn't really count for much.

-Nam

1.	I think
2.	I think, I added both totals in my head

[pianodwarf]

People who make "protest votes", I really don't understand them. Especially those from consistant states that always vote one way. They don't like the person they voted in, that actually isn't for their political views, yet they voted for them, and complain afterward. You're not punishing anyone but yourselves: plain and simple.

Protest votes can make sense depending on which jurisdiction you live in.  I, for example, live in Maryland, which is among the bluer states in the nation.  It's rare for it to be considered a battleground state; the last time it was considered one was in the 2000 election, and even at that, it ended up going to Gore by a fairly large margin.

That being the case, I'm free to vote my conscience, so I always vote for a third-party candidate (typically the Green Party candidate) simply to make a statement about my objections to the stranglehold that the Republicrats have over our political system.  No, it will probably never make a difference -- but then, that's pretty much the point.

[Nam]

pianodwarf,

It actually does make a difference, just not normally the difference the particular people who do it wish to happen. That's how most of Independents were created in today's age, who nominally still vote for the parties they were initially in to begin with.

There are exceptions but they are few and far between.

-Nam

[Kimberly]

Nam,

Why is TN a battleground state? From what I can tell by observation Romney easily has TN won.

[pianodwarf]

Why is TN a battleground state? From what I can tell by observation Romney easily has TN won.

Polls do not currently indicate that Tennessee is a battleground state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012

[Kimberly]

TY PD, I thought I woke up in the wrong state for a moment.

[Nam]

Actually, it's been back and forth. Though I did look at wiki, I also looked at dailykos, and 270towin, and various local papers from the state, and it seems to be, from that perspective.

However, I believe it will go to Romney.

-Nam

[Nam]

See, the problem I have with wiki is that Michigan is counted as a battleground state because the Mitchell poll has 1 point margin but polling for the same day in two or more polling has Obama in the lead. The Tennessee one is the same thing, last polling is 1 point +/- in Romney's favor, even though other polls show Romney in the lead. Why I check other sources and those sources tell me Tenn. Is a battleground state.

-Nam

[nogodsforme]

I am for Obama all the way, although I agree that money and voter suppression could possibly swing the election to Romney. I am working on voter registration in my state, even though statistically it will go blue. We have downstate races like governor and sec of state that are at least as important as president.

Romney has to buy or steal the election. He could not win it straight out because he is such a bad campaigner and quite unlikeable, even by conservatives. Fundies don't like his Mormon religion. Working class people don't like his snooty attitude. Union people don't like his company sending jobs to China. Nobody likes him skipping out on taxes and hiding money overseas. (If you love dogs, you also have a special dislike for Romney.)

I agree with Mr. B that Romney doesn't give a rat's a$$ about the average person. He can't relate to anyone who is not a millionaire--he sold some stock to pay his college expenses and thinks anyone who can't afford college can just borrow money from their parents and start a business. Maybe invest in a dressage horse.

I think that President Obama, while no liberal, is far more likely to improve things for the average person. He can talk to ordinary people. He did not grow up rich. He knows what it is like to pay bills and worry about expenses. His economic policies (those that the repubs would let come to a vote) have turned the country away from the cliff and we have gone from net job loss to net job gains each month since he has taken office.

He has lowered taxes for the middle and working class, and given businesses tax incentives for hiring veterans. He has also helped millions of people get health care, which has saved lives. He has been winding down the wars, and has put all the military expenses on the budget. And he, unlike Romney, is not threatening to start another war-- with Iran. 

BTW Does anyone in the conservative camp mind that Romney is getting all this money from foreigners? I have nothing against foreigners. Some of my best friends, etc. But I don't want money from non-citizens in other countries influencing who our leaders are. What would prevent a terrorist organization backed by Saudi money from buying a candidate? What would stop China from buying a candidate favorable to their interests?

I don't want Obama to get his campaign money from Israel or India or UAE. Because what would those countries be buying?

[Nam]

They can't say[1] that Obama caters to, or is a part of the Elite when Romney, by definition, is the Elite.

-Nam

1.	though they probably will

[shnozzola]

(If you love dogs, you also have a special dislike for Romney.)

I'll never get over that.  It lacks some kind of decency and common sense.  And this man wants to be president.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/mitt-romneys-dog-on-the-car-roof-story-still-proves-to-be-his-critics-best-friend/2012/03/14/gIQAp2LxCS_story.html

[Nam]

You know, besides the Mickey Mouse vote, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to win, of course Nick sort of contradicts that with his comment, so, he should have voted for Romney.

-Nam

[kin hell]

Quoted to bump, and

The following are proposed cuts by the US House and Senate over the budget and also by republican governors the past couple years that affect the safety net:  Cuts to...social security and age raised to qualify, medicare cuts in the form of a voucher type program and age raised also, limit numbers who qualify for Medicaid, fight universal health care for all, keeping millions without and making us a beggar nation for health care, planned parenthood elimination...this program does so much good for low income and poor women in many ways, food stamp cuts,  WIC cuts, unemployment insurance limits in a down economy, cutting completely the Consumer Protection Agency...it tries to protect us from banks and credit card rip offs, programs to help the poor with utility bills especially in winter and heat waves, cuts to education K-12 and programs, cuts to Pell Grants and student loans for higher education, Early Childhood programs like Head Start and Parents as Teachers cut or eliminated in some states, mental health programs cut to the bone or eliminated putting mentally ill in prisons, cuts to most social programs and food kitchens.  I'm sure I missed some...but we need to make sure we get those tax breaks to the rich.

grind my teeth with this latest

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/02/mitt-romney-end-us-wind-subsidies?INTCMP=SRCH

Mitt Romney confirms he would end US wind power subsidies

Shawn McCoy, a spokesman for Romney's Iowa campaign, told the Des Moines Register earlier this week that Romney would "allow the wind credit to expire, end the stimulus boondoggles, and create a level playing field on which all sources of energy can compete on their merits".

He added that wind energy would still be allowed to "thrive wherever it is economically competitive, and wherever private sector competitors with far more experience than the president believe the investment will produce results".

Romney's campaign later confirmed he planned to allow the tax credits to lapse, stressing that he favours an energy policy environment where technology-specific incentives are removed.

However, green groups, renewable energy industry insiders, and Democrats were all quick to point out that Romney's desire for a level playing field on energy policy does not extend to oil and gas, where he has pledged to retain up to $40bn of subsidies and tax breaks that President Obama wants to see phased out.

my bold

spectating from Oz  not appreciating the free energy that's boiling my blood

[Mr. Blackwell]

You know, besides the Mickey Mouse vote, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to win, of course Nick sort of contradicts that with his comment, so, he should have voted for Romney.

-Nam

You know what's funny about the Mickey Mouse vote besides the fact that it was mine?

It stands out.

[LoriPinkAngel]

Don't forget about everybody who's pissed off that Obama said gays should be allowed to get married.  That's the whole douchebag homophobe vote.

[Nick]

And so it starts !!!    I have a town near me with a population of 2500.  The whole town is powered by wind power and the school district benefits from money coming into the system from it.  It can't survive in this early stage without gov help.  The initial costs is too much.  Its sad, really sad.

[Nam]

kin hell,

Sounds like those that make profits are in, and those that don't are out. Meaning: he's showing what he's for: money. That's it. Not the welfare of the people. Especially since he's not proposing this for oil.

Rarely are Republicans for the environment. Usually those that are are from states where it's actually a big issue for the citizens of that state. You'd think Gov. Rick Scott would recognize such things but, I feel, he's worse on said issues more than Romney.

Nick,

Romney doesn't care. If they can't keep it running privately, then it is a waste, apparently.

-Nam

[Nick]

If they can get up and running they work well.  The gov help is needed initially when they are planned out, transported to the site and put together.  Also, you can't just put of a wind farm.  The power lines have to be able to accept the electricity.  Many cannot and need to be reworked.  That is where a lot of the seed money from the gov goes to.  It's like that bridge and road thing Obama tried to talk about before the repups went nuts about how he hates small businesses.

[Nam]

I just checked wiki for recent polling and their map added other battleground states (including re-adding Tenn.) Yet the opinion polling for each state now represented on the map, isn't in each individual state listed.

Example: they have Michigan now as a battleground state on the map yet on the list it still has Obama in the lead. Same with Nevada, and other states. All of the "red" states seems to be pink now on themap, meaning that Obama is gaining in those states. Or something. Obama is still considerably in the lead nearer to 300 with Romney still at less than 200.

Still doesn't look good for Romney.

-Nam

[Frank]

The main reason I didn't vote for Obama was because I didn't want one party having control over the house, senate AND white house. I know it sounds petty but I just can't imagine what would happen with that much one sidedness.

I can. Something useful might actually get done.

[Nam]

Yeah, I think the last 3+ years prove that.

-Nam