Author Topic: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct  (Read 2034 times)

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Offline qwan_lee

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Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« on: April 20, 2012, 05:28:57 PM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".

Offline nogodsforme

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2012, 05:37:59 PM »
I posit that the person who posted this message is a stone genius. I await the avalance of groupthink agreement. If enough people say the same thing as me, then it must be true.

I also think that mankind came from a banana peel.[1] Womankind, on the other hand, came from earlier species of primates. :angel:
 1. Accounts for the slippery nature of many males.
Extraordinary claims of the bible don't even have ordinary evidence.

Kids aren't paying attention most of the time in science classes so it seems silly to get worked up over ID being taught in schools.

Online ParkingPlaces

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2012, 06:17:24 PM »
RAther than just plain old derogatory accusations, you might come up with some examples when you say we all think alike. Since nobody has posited that we evolved from banana peels, and nobody else amongst we atheists would ever agree to such a thing, methinks you are making crap up.

Yes, crowds can be wise. They can also succumb to mass hysteria and agree to be just plain wrong.

And I'd love to see the source that says 92% of Americans believe in god. That is ten percent or more than the number I usually see.

I did google the percentage thing and found a Gallup poll that said the number who believe is over 90%. The next item was a Gallup pole that said the number was over 80%.

Of course it doesn't matter how many believe if there isn't one. Such wishful thinking isn't going to conjure one up either.
Not everyone is entitled to their own opinion. They're all entitled to mine though.

Offline Lorax

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2012, 06:59:30 PM »
Qwan, they believe in God, or they believe in a god.

Big difference,

Believing in God with a capitol G like it's his first name indicates that they all have a relationship with a particular character. believing in a god is different. Like believing in "monsters"

Some people who believe in monsters, believe that the characters of sesame street are real, some believe in Bigfoot and other cryptozoological beasts, others believe in just one of those but not others. I myself, I believe in monsters, by which I mean child rapists and people who talk in the theater. So how can we ever get any consensus about whether or not monsters are real from that crowd data?

Offline Ambassador Pony

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2012, 07:02:09 PM »
I predict when the responses don't confirm the OP's pre-suppositions, the OP will interpret the responses as confirming his pre-suppositions.

win win! yay trolls!
You believe evolution and there is no evidence for that. Where is the fossil record of a half man half ape. I've only ever heard about it in reading.

Offline Nick

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2012, 07:06:10 PM »
I guess then that 92% of Americans are stupid.
Yo, put that in your pipe and smoke it.  Quit ragging on my Lord.

Tide goes in, tide goes out !!!

Offline Quesi

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2012, 07:32:10 PM »
Qwan Lee-

You do not understand the difference between majority and consensus. 

I also think that if you pay attention, you will find that there is in fact a diversity of opinions among the atheists on this forum. 

Offline Tero

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2012, 07:36:40 PM »
Plenty of soceties were run by belief systems. Where does this correct thing come in?

Offline grant

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2012, 07:54:30 PM »
92% of children believe in Santa Claus.

92% of North Koreans believe their president is god.
What if the hokey pokey is what its all about?

Offline jaimehlers

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2012, 08:01:26 PM »
In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.
You clearly haven't looked very hard.  If at all.  The non-religious members of this forum (atheist or otherwise) disagree with each other on any number of things.  If someone, religious or non-religious, comes up with an idea, the onus is on them to support it.  It doesn't matter who comes up with the idea, they don't get a free pass on it.  So, no "banana peel" groupthink here.

Quote from: qwan_lee
The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".
Incorrect.  This is an appeal to popular belief, a fallacious argument.  A consensus is not determined by an opinion poll.  It is determined by people who are knowledgeable about a subject discussing it and coming to a consensus regarding that subject.

You need to spend some time educating yourself on subjects like these instead of drive-by posting.

Offline Jeff7

Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2012, 08:05:54 PM »
Apparently, according to the 2001 census, Hinduism had approximately 828 million adherents or so in India.. (80.5% of total population)

Sounds like a pretty wise crowd to me, yeah?

Offline Quesi

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2012, 08:07:00 PM »
And about 1/3 of humanity is Christian.  So are you saying that the two-thirds of humanity who don't believe that Jesus died for our sins are right?

Or do only Americans count?

Offline freakygin

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2012, 08:19:27 PM »
I think those 92% are based on Pascal's wager.
They think they have nothing to lose.
If you argue correctly, you're never wrong..

Online Willie

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2012, 08:31:21 PM »
How would one know if the consensus is almost always right but by judging the consensus belief against some standard that is more reliable than consensus? What might constitute such a superior standard? How about how well the claim corresponds with observed evidence.

Offline jeremy0

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2012, 08:42:08 PM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".
I would like to add that if during my 'team-building' courses while attending college, if I would have allowed the 'consensus' to answer all the questions instead of inserting my 'individual intellect', we instead of getting A's would have been more like C's...

[wikipedia] approximately 46% percent of Americans have tried drugs at least once in their life.
Darn.  I was almost at a 'consensus'. 
The majority of american's are unable to retire:
http://reversemortgagedaily.com/2010/12/15/study-reveals-most-americans-unable-to-afford-retirement-until-age-73/
This must mean that the majority of americans are dumb with an important thing like finance...

Quote
(from huffington post) The three-yearly OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) report, which compares the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds in 70 countries around the world, ranked the United States 14th out of 34 OECD countries for reading skills, 17th for science and a below-average 25th for mathematics.
Most americans are dumb with mathematics...  mathematics in my opinion is synonymous with logical reasoning.  I think you'll find that most people here are fairly logical and are decent regarding math and science skills..  of course, THAT is the CONSENSUS of this particular FORUM COMMUNITY..

Quote
(From CNN News) The poll, conducted July 6-9 among a national sample of 1,007 people aged 18 and older, showed 64% of Americans say they drink alcoholic beverages.
Seems the consensus is in america, we like to get drunk... Drinking affects motor skills and decision-making capabilities.  Drinking when you are young causes your brain to develop abnormally..  Good thing it's the law to be 21, most male minds are fully matured by then.  Female - 26.

Quote
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500160_162-965223.html
Most Americans do not accept the theory of evolution. Instead, 51 percent of Americans say God created humans in their present form, and another three in 10 say that while humans evolved, God guided the process. Just 15 percent say humans evolved, and that God was not involved.
The consensus from americans goes against valid, factual, and PROVEN SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE...

Quote
(Washington Post) The increase in climate skepticism is driven largely by a shift within the GOP. Since its peak 3 1/2 years ago, belief that climate change is happening is down sharply among Republicans -- 76 to 54 percent -- and independents -- 86 to 71 percent. It dipped more modestly among Democrats, from 92 to 86 percent. A majority of respondents still support legislation to cap emissions and trade pollution allowances, by 53 to 42 percent.
Seems democrats are more sane than republicans, sorry to say.  Also, republicans are more closely tied to religious views instead of facts.. (see just about every dem vs. rep campaign in recent history)

Quote
According to one poll, 70 percent of Americans believe Satan is real. Some believe he -- and almost all believers say Satan is a "he" -- is a fallen angel. Others believe Satan is a shapeless, malevolent force; the enemy of God. But there are also many people who believe that Satan is a myth, and a dangerous one, because his name is often invoked to justify unspeakable acts of violence.
You probably think I'm satan for providing my rebuttal, lamo..

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/01/12/poll-finds-43-percent-of-people-believe-god-helps-tebow-win/
I think just by reading this url, you get the idea of how stupid 43% of americans really are.  I bet it's according to the coin-toss which team gets god and which gets satan.  Then, the men skurry around the field while satan and god duke it out.  Of course, they have to do this with every single game ever played, which gets old..[1]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/galleries/2010/08/24/dumb-things-americans-believe.html
Quote
-Also, only 55 percent correctly linked Darwin's name with the theory. [evolution]
-41 percent believe in ESP, 32 percent in ghosts, and a quarter in astrology. [I am reading your mind.  I require a tithe, and human brains to feed my army of zombies.  whooeooaoaaa....]
-four in 10 Americans mistakenly believe the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act creates a panel that makes decisions about end-of-life care.
-41 percent believed Saddam was involved in 9/11—even though President Bush had said otherwise as early as September 2003.
-20 percent of Americans were still sure in 1999 that the sun revolved around the Earth.
-barely half of Americans were correctly able to state that Judaism was older than both Christianity and Islam. Another 41 percent weren't sure; in case you're in that group, here goes: Judaism is the oldest of the Abrahamic faiths, followed by Christianity—which reveres the Jewish prophets (including Moses, above)—and then Islam, which reveres the Jewish prophets and also hails Jesus as a prophet.  [needed that whole bit to show you it's wrong to discriminate and hate islam..]
-more than three quarters of Americans could name at least two of the seven dwarfs, while not quite a quarter could name two members of the Supreme Court. [majority of americans don't know who is in the supreme court, even more aren't aware of what they have ruled on or could have ruled on..]
-Sixty-three percent of young Americans can't find Iraq on a map, despite the ongoing U.S involvement there. Nine out of 10 can't find Afghanistan—even if you give them the advantage of a map limited to Asia. And more than a third of Americans of any age can't identify the continent that's home to the Amazon River (above), the world's largest. [*gasp* I had no idea so many people were geographical dummies]
-Only two out of five respondents, however, can correctly identify the executive, legislative, and judicial branches as the three wings of government. [majority of americans can't identify the balance of powers.. which is a major problem.  constitution has now become a piece of paper due to your stupidity]
-A Time magazine poll last week found similar results: 24 percent believed he was a Muslim, while only 47 percent correctly identified him as a Christian.  [the majority of americans incorrectly identify The President of the United States' religion, simply because he doesn't talk about it. (sic) ]


Looking at all this data, I can safely conclude that your claim that 'the majority can't be wrong' is simply bullshit.  Horseshit and nothing further.  The majority of Chinese don't have any religion, and I bet they are, in a majority, smarter than you...

[1] I've shown in another thread that the concept of God and Satan causing people to do things requires extensive and chaotic time-travel, which is a scientific paradox since it would require traveling backwards in time..


 
« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 08:49:10 PM by jeremy0 »
"If you find yourself reaching for the light, first realize that it has already touched your finger."
"If I were your god, I would have no reason for judgement, and you have all told endless lies about me.  Wait - you do already. I am not amused by your ignorance, thoughtlessness, and shallow mind."

Offline jeremy0

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2012, 08:43:29 PM »
I guess then that 92% of Americans are stupid.
good guess..
"If you find yourself reaching for the light, first realize that it has already touched your finger."
"If I were your god, I would have no reason for judgement, and you have all told endless lies about me.  Wait - you do already. I am not amused by your ignorance, thoughtlessness, and shallow mind."

Offline Poseidon

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2012, 10:56:00 PM »
Wow! You guys really jumped Quan Lee.  Not to be too biblical but he landed in the lions den. He'd have been OK except for the thoroughly absurd notion that the concensus makes sound decisions.

 

Offline Historicity

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2012, 11:03:07 PM »
Qwan_lee's position is special pleading:  If he likes the group decision it is the Wisdom of Crowds.  If he doesn't like the group decision it is groupthink.


Offline sun_king

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2012, 11:37:32 PM »

Offline joebbowers

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2012, 04:04:34 AM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".

There is so much stupidity in that post, it's fucking staggering. The oppressive weight of pure bullshit there could founder an aircraft carrier.

First, we constantly argue with each other, even when we agree with each other, because we have very high standards of intellectual honesty and demand that statements be backed up with sound logic, evidence, and sources.

Second, just because a bunch of people believe something doesn't mean it's true. That's a logical fallacy called Argumentum ad Populum[1]. By your logic Zeus is real too because at one point nearly the entire population of Greece believed in him too.

Third, that 92% includes Muslims, Mormons, Jews, Satanists, Nazis, Catholics, Protestants, the Westboro Baptists, Buddhists, Taoists, Wiccans, and every other fucking idiot who is sure that his idea of god is the right one.

The fact that you have abdicated your moral and logical responsibility in favor of a hate-filled and evil book written by insane, sexist, homophobic, bloodthirsty rapists is insulting to your fellow man. Don't you dare vomit up old arguments here and presume to think you know better than us. We are much smarter than you and better prepared.
 1.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum
"Do you see a problem with insisting that the normal ways in which you determine fact from fiction is something you have to turn off in order to maintain the belief in God?" - JeffPT

Offline Seppuku

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2012, 07:31:01 AM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99945,00.html

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".

Actually, if somebody said mankind came from a banana peel there would be scepticism and people asking for evidence. Even the atheists here like to tell each other they're wrong when they think they're wrong rather than agree as part of a 'group think'. I don't always agree with everything everyone posts.

However, the consensus argument has terrible grounding. Just because a crap load of people believe something makes it true? What about the consensus in pre-Christian days? What about the consensus pre-Jewish days? Were they right? Were the Mesopotamians right? After all their general consensus is that there are multiple gods and they had a pretty damn big population for that time. What about the Pre-Christian Roman Empire? What about Pagan Europe prior to the invasion of Christianity? What about Native Americans prior to the invasions there?

The problem with general consensus is that humans are flawed, it doesn't necessarily mean that the popular answer is the right one. Heck, watch Who Wants to be Millionaire, the audience doesn't always get the answer right when people go for "Ask the Audience".
[edit] Apparently they only get it right 95% of the time.[1]


Now, your title says,"Consensus Almost Always Is Correct". So I'm gonna take it you've got another means of measuring the validity of a statement? For example, validity for the existence of God? Because if it's almost always correct then there is a margin of error and how do we know the existence of God isn't inside of this margin? So without evidence to suggest that God is in fact real and these people are right makes the point the 'Consensus Almost Always Is Correct' moot. If "Consensus Always Is Correct" was in fact a true statement (and it is not) then it would be a different matter.


[edit2]

I don't think even if the general consensus agreed something was true then I'd have to give it any kind of merit.



Lets say I was very confident that B was correct, would I have to give the 81% merit for the answer they've given? C seems like the most likely answer (even to me), so we can safely say that 81% of people didn't know the answer and took what seemed like to be the mostly likely explanation for them. But it was a wrong assumption, those who actually had the right answer were a minority.

So it's evident that when it comes to general consensus there's room for error, meaning that actually, your 9% could be right.
 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Wants_to_Be_a_Millionaire%3F#Lifelines
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 07:54:28 AM by Seppuku »
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Offline Graybeard

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2012, 10:30:38 AM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence.
How different from our religious friends who each believe in their own, hand-made god, special to them!

How strange that in a forum designed, originated and populated by atheists, that there should be some agreement on the question of gods!

How weird that after years and years of the religious asking the same questions and making the same points, that our answers should be consistent!

What independence would you want to see? Should we argue among ourselves? You can say, "Yes" because we often do; but we are united against the idea of nebulous gods controlling our destiny, bullshitting about life after death (whatever that is) and demanding our praise and money.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 10:32:12 AM by Graybeard »
RELIGION, n. A daughter of Hope and Fear, explaining to Ignorance the nature of the Unknowable. Ambrose Bierce

Offline Tero

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2012, 10:53:33 AM »
There is probably no consensus on this forum about politics. The US has a strong link between religion and the political right. That is not the case in all countries. A leftist can demand charity as well, based on religious beliefs.

Offline jeremy0

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2012, 05:11:08 PM »
What independence would you want to see? Should we argue among ourselves? You can say, "Yes" because we often do; but we are united against the idea of nebulous gods controlling our destiny, bullshitting about life after death (whatever that is) and demanding our praise and money.
(bolded and italicised for clarity)
"If you find yourself reaching for the light, first realize that it has already touched your finger."
"If I were your god, I would have no reason for judgement, and you have all told endless lies about me.  Wait - you do already. I am not amused by your ignorance, thoughtlessness, and shallow mind."

Offline Dante

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2012, 05:58:18 PM »
I'm sure it does seem like we here agree on quite a few topics. You may think it is "groupthink", but I doubt you're right. I think its because most of us are logical, rational thinkers, so we can come to the same conclusions on a myriad of topics. And theres nothing wrong with that.
Actually it doesn't. One could conceivably be all-powerful but not exceptionally intelligent.

Offline Avatar Of Belial

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2012, 06:22:54 PM »
In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".

AHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahaaaaaahaaaa ... heh...

Oh, wait... you're serious. Let me laugh even harder.
"You play make-believe every day of your life, and yet you have no concept of 'imagination'."
I do not have "faith" in science. I have expectations of science. "Faith" in something is an unfounded assertion, whereas reasonable expectations require a precedent.

Offline jeremy0

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #26 on: April 21, 2012, 06:27:32 PM »
In this forum(among non-christian posters), I notice very little diversity and poor independence. If someone posits that mankind came from a banana peel there is very little resistance to the notion. The whole "group think" is obvious and leads to unwise crowds.

The consensus(again remember: consensus has MORE intelligence cumulatively than any one expert) of americans believe in God.

"92 percent of Americans say they believe in God".

AHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahaaaaaahaaaa ... heh...

Oh, wait... you're serious. Let me laugh even harder.
You are what you eat - humans and apes' dna closely aligns with bananas!! Bwahahahahahaha!    ;D
"If you find yourself reaching for the light, first realize that it has already touched your finger."
"If I were your god, I would have no reason for judgement, and you have all told endless lies about me.  Wait - you do already. I am not amused by your ignorance, thoughtlessness, and shallow mind."

Offline joebbowers

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2012, 09:31:23 PM »
Heck, watch Who Wants to be Millionaire, the audience doesn't always get the answer right when people go for "Ask the Audience".
[edit] Apparently they only get it right 95% of the time.[1]
 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Wants_to_Be_a_Millionaire%3F#Lifelines

Regis Philbin said it was right 95% of the time, but what is that based on? Hyperbole and exaggeration? His best guess? Or a verifiable statistic?

Regardless, that is only a consensus of what the audience believes, not necessarily what is true.
"Do you see a problem with insisting that the normal ways in which you determine fact from fiction is something you have to turn off in order to maintain the belief in God?" - JeffPT

Offline Ice Monkey

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Re: Consensus Almost Always Is Correct
« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2012, 10:47:21 PM »
92% of children believe in Santa Claus.

92% of North Koreans believe their president is god.
The remaining 8% of North Koreans believe their president is Santa.
Religion. It's given people hope in a world torn apart by religion." -- Charlie Chaplin