Author Topic: When Robots Exceed Humans....  (Read 790 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline DVZ3

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 1377
  • Darwins +42/-8
  • Gender: Male
When Robots Exceed Humans....
« on: January 21, 2012, 07:56:40 AM »
 
"In one scenario, we puny humans are simply pushed aside as a relic of evolution. It is a law of evolution that fitter species arise to displace unfit species; and perhaps humans will be lost in the shuffle, eventually winding up in zoos where our robotic creations come to stare at us. Perhaps that is our destiny: to give birth to superrobots that treat us as an embarrassingly primitive footnote in their evolution. Perhaps that is our role in history, to give birth to our evolutionary successors. In this view, our role is to get out of their way. Douglas Hofstadter confided to me that this might be the natural order of things, but we should treat these superintelligent robots as we do our children, because that is what they are, in some sense. If we can care for our children, he said to me, then why can’t we also care about intelligent robots, which are also our children?

 
 
Hans Moravec contemplates how we may feel being left in the dust by our robots: “… life may seem pointless if we are fated to spend it staring stupidly at our ultraintelligent progeny as they try to describe their ever more spectacular discoveries in baby talk that we can understand.” When we finally hit the fateful day when robots are smarter than us, not only will we no longer be the most intelligent being on earth, but our creations may make copies of themselves that are even smarter than they are. This army of self-replicating robots will then create endless future generations of robots, each one smarter than the previous one. Since robots can theoretically produce ever-smarter generations of robots in a very short period of time, eventually this process will explode exponentially, until they begin to devour the resources of the planet in their insatiable quest to become ever more intelligent.

 
 
In one scenario, this ravenous appetite for ever-increasing intelligence will eventually ravage the resources of the entire planet, so the entire earth becomes a computer. Some envision these superintelligent robots then shooting out into space to continue their quest for more intelligence, until they reach other planets, stars, and galaxies in order to convert them into computers. But since the planets, stars, and galaxies are so incredibly far away, perhaps the computer may alter the laws of physics so its ravenous appetite can race faster than the speed of light to consume whole star systems and galaxies. Some even believe it might consume the entire universe, so that the universe becomes intelligent. This is the “singularity.” The word originally came from the world of relativistic physics, my personal specialty, where a singularity represents a point of infinite gravity, from which nothing can escape, such as a black hole. Because light itself cannot escape, it is a horizon beyond which we cannot see. The idea of an AI singularity was first mentioned in 1958, in a conversation between two mathematicians, Stanislaw Ulam (who made the key breakthrough in the design of the hydrogen bomb) and John von Neumann. Ulam wrote, “One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the human race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” Versions of the idea have been kicking around for decades. But it was then amplified and popularized by science fiction writer and mathematician Vernor Vinge in his novels and essays.

 
 
But this leaves the crucial question unanswered: When will the singularity take place? Within our lifetimes? Perhaps in the next century? Or never? We recall that the participants at the 2009 Asilomar conference put the date at any time between 20 to 1,000 years into the future. One man who has become the spokesperson for the singularity is inventor and bestselling author Ray Kurzweil, who has a penchant for making predictions based on the exponential growth of technology. Kurzweil once told me that when he gazes at the distant stars at night, perhaps one should be able to see some cosmic evidence of the singularity happening in some distant galaxy. With the ability to devour or rearrange whole star systems, there should be some footprint left behind by this rapidly expanding singularity. (His detractors say that he is whipping up a near-religious fervor around the singularity. However, his supporters say that he has an uncanny ability to correctly see into the future, judging by his track record.)

 
Kurzweil cut his teeth on the computer revolution by starting up companies in diverse fields involving pattern recognition, such as speech recognition technology, optical character recognition, and electronic keyboard instruments. In 1999, he wrote a best seller, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, which predicted when robots will surpass us in intelligence. In 2005, he wrote The Singularity Is Near and elaborated on those predictions. The fateful day when computers surpass human intelligence will come in stages.

 
By 2019, he predicts, a $1,000 personal computer will have as much raw power as a human brain. Soon after that, computers will leave us in the dust. By 2029, a $1,000 personal computer will be 1,000 times more powerful than a human brain. By 2045, a $1,000 computer will be a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. Even small computers will surpass the ability of the entire human race.

 
After 2045, computers become so advanced that they make copies of themselves that are ever

increasing in intelligence, creating a runaway singularity. To satisfy their never-ending, ravenous

appetite for computer power, they will begin to devour the earth, asteroids, planets, and stars, and even affect the cosmological history of the universe itself.

 
I had the chance to visit Kurzweil in his office outside Boston. Walking through the corridor, you see the awards and honors he has received, as well as some of the musical instruments he has designed, which are used by top musicians, such as Stevie Wonder. He explained to me that there was a turning point in his life. It came when he was unexpectedly diagnosed with type II diabetes when he was thirty-five. Suddenly, he was faced with the grim reality that he would not live long enough to see his predictions come true. His body, after years of neglect, had aged beyond his years. Rattled by this diagnosis, he now attacked the problem of personal health with the same enthusiasm and energy he used for the computer revolution. (Today, he consumes more than 100 pills a day and has written books on the revolution in longevity. He expects that the revolution in microscopic robots will be able to clean out and repair the human body so that it can live forever. His philosophy is that he would like to live long enough to see the medical breakthroughs that can prolong our life spans indefinitely. In other words, he wants to live long enough to live forever.)

 
Recently, he embarked on an ambitious plan to launch the Singularity University, based in the NASA Ames laboratory in the Bay Area, which trains a cadre of scientists to prepare for the coming singularity. There are many variations and combinations of these various themes. Kurzweil himself believes, “It’s not going to be an invasion of intelligent machines coming over the horizon. We’re going to merge with this technology …. We’re going to put these intelligent devices in our bodies and brains to make us live longer and healthier.”

 
And it's already started.  ;) Meet IBM's Watson.... 

http://www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/what-is-watson/the-future-of-watson.html
Hguols: "Its easier for me to believe that a God created everything...."

Offline Samuelxcs

  • Postgraduate
  • *****
  • Posts: 669
  • Darwins +6/-18
  • Gender: Male
  • The oldest and strongest emotion of humans is fear
    • Fallen Angels
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2012, 08:01:03 AM »
Judgement day!
"The stupid neither forgive nor forget; the naïve forgive and forget; the wise forgive but do not forget."
-Thomas Szasz

Offline jetson

  • Administrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 7312
  • Darwins +170/-6
  • Gender: Male
  • Meet George Jetson!
    • Jet Blog
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2012, 11:16:36 AM »
That's nice, but can it write my term paper?

Yes, yes it can.

Offline Frank

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 2363
  • Darwins +38/-20
  • Gender: Male
  • You're doin' my head in!!
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2012, 12:16:48 PM »
Hey any problems with robots and we'll just call on..............



In his kinky boots and figure hugging mini skirt. The robots don't stand a chance.
"Atheism is not a mission to convert the world. It only seems that way because when other religions fall away, atheism is what is left behind".

Offline BornAgainAtheist

  • Student
  • **
  • Posts: 69
  • Darwins +4/-0
  • Gender: Male
  • Spell Check
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2012, 04:13:23 PM »
I've heard Kurzweil make the distinction in more than one interview that we will eventually "merge with our technology" as opposed to technology overtaking us.  He also clarified that he is specifically interested in the exponential growth of Information Technology.

I became fan of Kurzweil and his predictions after seeing the documentary Transcendent Man.  I have not yet read any of his books. 
My hair is a bird.  Your argument is invalid.

Online shnozzola

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 1965
  • Darwins +110/-2
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2012, 04:25:44 PM »
- If robots made me become a zoo specimen, keeping me in the best of health, forced into a sleep number bed every night, forced to impregnate a long succession of beautiful human females, fed steaks, beer, and lobster, hmmmm...............





edit: added ......... beer
« Last Edit: January 21, 2012, 04:35:02 PM by shnozzola »
“The best thing for being sad," replied Merlin, beginning to puff and blow, "is to learn something."  ~ T. H. White
  The real holy trinity:  onion, celery, and bell pepper ~  all Cajun Chefs

Online jaimehlers

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5242
  • Darwins +599/-19
  • Gender: Male
  • WWGHA Member
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2012, 04:33:09 PM »
I don't think this is actually going to happen, certainly not in the timeframe he suggests.  There's diminishing returns about how fast a computer can run without requiring too much electricity and generating too much heat to be practical, for example.  Why do you think we started ending up with multiple processing cores instead of simply making faster ones?  Furthermore, simply increasing the number of binary transistor switches in a processor isn't a measure of intelligence in any way, shape, or form.  Moore's law doesn't account for the problems that we will inevitably run into for developing better computers, and it also doesn't account for the development of AI at all.

Offline kin hell

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5380
  • Darwins +152/-7
  • Gender: Male
  • - .... . .-. . /.. ... / -. --- / --. --- -.. ...
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2012, 04:41:40 PM »
Ken Jennings

losing with style and grace and wonderful humour

Quote
(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)

I have seen this phrase before ...in a movie? (or variation showing wonderful survival instincts  with an almost instantaneous quisling proclivity)

Can anyone remember where?



The only disagreement I have with the scenario is the "destruction of the planet" hysteria caused by entities that are inconceivably smarter than us.

I think it takes our level of dumbness to waste the only place that sustains us.

Also the convergence of human and machine will be worth viewing for its inevitable u$ and them division and discord.

I too want to live long enough to have the chance to live as long as I want to.

"...but on a lighter note, demons were driven from a pig today in Gloucester."  Bill Bailey

all edits are for spelling or grammar unless specified otherwise

Offline jetson

  • Administrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 7312
  • Darwins +170/-6
  • Gender: Male
  • Meet George Jetson!
    • Jet Blog
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2012, 04:43:25 PM »
I don't think this is actually going to happen, certainly not in the timeframe he suggests.  There's diminishing returns about how fast a computer can run without requiring too much electricity and generating too much heat to be practical, for example.  Why do you think we started ending up with multiple processing cores instead of simply making faster ones?  Furthermore, simply increasing the number of binary transistor switches in a processor isn't a measure of intelligence in any way, shape, or form.  Moore's law doesn't account for the problems that we will inevitably run into for developing better computers, and it also doesn't account for the development of AI at all.

We don't know what we don't know!

I realize I should be more intellectual on this topic.  But I have always slipped a little when it comes to future technology, and the possibilities.  Who knows what is possible, and how it might be stumbled upon.  Besides, if God is real, couldn't he deign a robot that is smarter, like a human...err, wait?   ;D

Online jaimehlers

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5242
  • Darwins +599/-19
  • Gender: Male
  • WWGHA Member
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2012, 05:26:05 PM »
We don't know what we don't know!

I realize I should be more intellectual on this topic.  But I have always slipped a little when it comes to future technology, and the possibilities.  Who knows what is possible, and how it might be stumbled upon.  Besides, if God is real, couldn't he deign a robot that is smarter, like a human...err, wait?   ;D
I get excited about the future and its possibilities too, I just try to remember that the further ahead we look, the less accurate we are.

Offline Noman Peopled

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 1904
  • Darwins +24/-1
  • Gender: Male
  • [insert wittycism]
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2012, 06:10:14 PM »
Quote
(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)
It seems to be either H.G. Wells's Empire of the Ants (haven't read it, couldn't comment) or the Simpsons (which is where I know it from). Know your meme ;)
"Deferinate" itself appears to be a new word... though I'm perfectly carmotic with it.
-xphobe

Offline kin hell

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5380
  • Darwins +152/-7
  • Gender: Male
  • - .... . .-. . /.. ... / -. --- / --. --- -.. ...
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2012, 06:27:43 PM »
Quote
(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)
It seems to be either H.G. Wells's Empire of the Ants (haven't read it, couldn't comment) or the Simpsons (which is where I know it from). Know your meme ;)

Thanks Noman

I had read A C Clarke's Childhood's End back in the day but while the Overlords existed the phrase was never used.
 I have never seen the 1977 film adaption of Empire of the Ants (alleged origin of the phrase), so I'm going with The Simpson's "Deep Space Homer" which I know I have seen.

Thanks for taking the trouble to do the research and for the link mate +1
"...but on a lighter note, demons were driven from a pig today in Gloucester."  Bill Bailey

all edits are for spelling or grammar unless specified otherwise

Offline Frank

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 2363
  • Darwins +38/-20
  • Gender: Male
  • You're doin' my head in!!
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2012, 08:31:45 PM »
Wherever did we get this idea that if a computer accumulates enough knowledge it will eventually become sentient and destroy us all? Human babies are born sentient yet have no knowledge of anything. So plainly knowledge has nothing to do with sentience.

"Atheism is not a mission to convert the world. It only seems that way because when other religions fall away, atheism is what is left behind".

Offline Historicity

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 2350
  • Darwins +80/-2
  • Gender: Male
  • (Rama, avatar of Vishnu)
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2012, 10:45:30 PM »
Quote
(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)
It seems to be either H.G. Wells's Empire of the Ants (haven't read it, couldn't comment) or the Simpsons (which is where I know it from). Know your meme ;)

No, NO, NO.  It's not from any scifi.

It's from Ken Jennings on Jeopardy when he played against the IBM computer.  He had already been mathematically eliminated by the computer's massive winnings.  He wrote that on the touch screen in Final Jeopardy below his answer.


Offline kin hell

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5380
  • Darwins +152/-7
  • Gender: Male
  • - .... . .-. . /.. ... / -. --- / --. --- -.. ...
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2012, 02:46:36 AM »
Quote
(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)
It seems to be either H.G. Wells's Empire of the Ants (haven't read it, couldn't comment) or the Simpsons (which is where I know it from). Know your meme ;)

No, NO, NO.  It's not from any scifi.

It's from Ken Jennings on Jeopardy when he played against the IBM computer.  He had already been mathematically eliminated by the computer's massive winnings.  He wrote that on the touch screen in Final Jeopardy below his answer.

Sometimes reading the thread helps

My original mention of Ken Jennings (and his Final Jeopardy screen answer versus Watson <IBM contender>) was reply #6
I said I had seen  his overlord quisling surrender before somewhere and asked if anyone knew where I might have seen it.

Noman kindly did the research to show where I had seen it before.

Unfortunately not only does the research indicate that Jennings brilliantly used an existing fledgling meme, but my memory of having seen or read it somewhere before Jennings usage (which started the research) seems to indicate the strong possibility of the phrase pre-existing Watson vs humans.
"...but on a lighter note, demons were driven from a pig today in Gloucester."  Bill Bailey

all edits are for spelling or grammar unless specified otherwise

Offline curiousgirl

  • Postgraduate
  • *****
  • Posts: 886
  • Darwins +22/-0
  • Gender: Female
  • Inquisitive agnostic atheist
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2012, 07:28:57 PM »
This thread brings to mind I, Robot by Isaac Asimov (one of my favorite authors). Such a great set of short stories that pertain to the topic at hand.

Anyway, I doubt that we should worry too much. The fact that people are even considering that robots could one day be much "smarter" than us (and other possibilities outlined in the OP) means that there is a good chance that someone out there is probably paranoid and even intelligent enough to have some sort of plan to deal with various crises (a good example from fiction is Project Wildfire in The Andromeda Strain).   
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."-Carl Sagan

Online Azdgari

  • Laureate
  • *********
  • Posts: 12544
  • Darwins +301/-32
  • Gender: Male
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2012, 07:39:42 PM »
We don't know what we don't know!

Which is why we can expect perpetual motion machines.  Right?
I have not encountered any mechanical malfunctioning in my spirit.  It works every single time I need it to.

Offline kin hell

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5380
  • Darwins +152/-7
  • Gender: Male
  • - .... . .-. . /.. ... / -. --- / --. --- -.. ...
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2012, 07:53:44 PM »
We don't know what we don't know!

Which is why we can expect perpetual motion machines.  Right?

strap a piece of buttered toast (butter side up), to the back of a cat

(you know how a cat always lands on its feet and toast always lands buttered side down)

lift cat approx 1m above ground, and release





sadly ............not my invention
"...but on a lighter note, demons were driven from a pig today in Gloucester."  Bill Bailey

all edits are for spelling or grammar unless specified otherwise

Offline dloubet

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 1409
  • Darwins +83/-1
  • Gender: Male
    • Denisloubet.com
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2012, 08:28:09 PM »
If the robots are better than us, then the only rational response is to become them. Why would we want to say ourselves if something better presents itself?

Sign me up for my indestructable robot body!
Denis Loubet

Offline Noman Peopled

  • Reader
  • ******
  • Posts: 1904
  • Darwins +24/-1
  • Gender: Male
  • [insert wittycism]
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2012, 12:47:25 AM »
That would depend on what they are better at ...
"Deferinate" itself appears to be a new word... though I'm perfectly carmotic with it.
-xphobe

Offline MadBunny

  • Fellow
  • *******
  • Posts: 3626
  • Darwins +124/-0
  • Fallen Illuminatus
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2012, 01:03:13 AM »
I read a book recently that talked about the technological singularity in it.

I was amused by the conceit that while it should have been technically possible since in the story they had AI wired directly into their brains helping them think, and giving them access to virtually any data they might need along with nano-assembler technology... the singularity just never happened.

Apparently humans couldn't get along long enough for it to kick into gear and wound up using their fancy new technology to build space battleships and blow stuff up.
Give a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a night.  Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

Offline MadBunny

  • Fellow
  • *******
  • Posts: 3626
  • Darwins +124/-0
  • Fallen Illuminatus
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2012, 01:10:39 AM »
If the robots are better than us, then the only rational response is to become them. Why would we want to say ourselves if something better presents itself?

Sign me up for my indestructable robot body!

Robots are already much better at us at some tasks.
All we need to do is to improve the mind/machine interface.


Thats a monkey controlling a robot arm with it's MIND!  No hand controls, though presumably a network of tubes and anime tentacles right behind the block.
[1]


Also, though it takes a bit of getting used to, there are a few amputee athletes that didn't get a leg from god, but *did* get one from science. Interchangeable legs that let them run faster, or be taller, or simply change them like a pair of shoes to fit social occasions.

  <--Aimee Mullins.

Edit: decided to add this one.

 1. Whipping and writhing, waiting till it can take vengeance on mankind muahahahaha.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2012, 01:34:21 AM by MadBunny »
Give a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a night.  Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

Offline Anfauglir

  • Global Moderator
  • ******
  • Posts: 6210
  • Darwins +411/-5
  • Gender: Male
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2012, 06:40:54 AM »
.....in the story they had AI wired directly into their brains helping them think, and giving them access to virtually any data they might need along with nano-assembler technology...[/quote]

Scott Adams has posited that we are almost all essentially cyborgs anyway.  Our phones and blackberries and whatnot are all essentially extra data storage and processing - the fact that they currently happen to be detchable is irrelevant. 

A lot of my memory I keep in my brain - but some buts of memory I keep in my electronic brain.  Lose the latter, and a lot of my memory is lost - so am I not already a cyborg?
Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid.
Why is it so hard for believers to answer a direct question?

Offline kin hell

  • Professor
  • ********
  • Posts: 5380
  • Darwins +152/-7
  • Gender: Male
  • - .... . .-. . /.. ... / -. --- / --. --- -.. ...
Re: When Robots Exceed Humans....
« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2012, 07:04:58 AM »

Scott Adams has posited that we are almost all essentially cyborgs anyway.  Our phones and blackberries and whatnot are all essentially extra data storage and processing - the fact that they currently happen to be detchable is irrelevant. 



nice idea  ..........we were cyborgs then the moment we tied a string around a finger to remind us knot(sic) to forget something
"...but on a lighter note, demons were driven from a pig today in Gloucester."  Bill Bailey

all edits are for spelling or grammar unless specified otherwise