anyway, at the risk of embarrassing myself again,
First Rule of Holes: If you find yourself in a hole you're having difficulty getting out of,
stop digging.

i'd like to try reiterating wayne jackson's first point. the one about something coming from nothing.
this is actually the oldest argument for theism, if i'm not mistaken. the cosmological argument. it is also the one that convinces me that God exists. not necessarily the God of the bible, but some kind of God.
here's one version of the cosmological argument (this is copied from http://www.saintaquinas.com/philosophy.html)
1. The existence of something is intelligible only if it has an explanation.
This applies to gods as much as it does to universes. We
know Universe exists. It is self-evident. The existence of gods and goddesses is not evident at all, otherwise believers would no longer be using arguments from medieval theologians, any more than naturalists employ medieval bestiaries or astronomers search the
Almagest for information on the structure of the Cosmos. Therefore, since we must ultimately arrive at some "brute fact" which lies at the root of all explanation but is self-existent and has no explanation for its own existence, the default starting point is Universe, in some form or other.
[1]2. The existence of the universe is thus either:
a. unintelligible or
b. has an explanation
"Having an explanation" may make something intelligible, but the explanation is only valid if it is
accurate. It is the accuracy (or lack thereof) of an explanation that counts, not its intelligibility or how "intuitive" it is to us.
3. No rational person should accept premise (2a) by definition of rationality
Why? This assumes that "intelligibility-to-humans" is some kind of cosmic principle that can be used to determine what does, and does not exist. "Universe is unintelligible if there is no god, therefore, god exists." In other words,
human consciousness is so powerful that it can conjure
God into being if, apart from that, Universe would not make intuitive sense to human consciousness. And what is "God?" Oh yeah. A really big, super-powerful
human consciousness. And a male one to boot.
This is a bizarre sort of hubris, to assume that all of Existence must bow to the limits of "intelligibility" and "intuitive feel" set by human consciousness. Philosophers and theologians can sit in their armchairs and derive the nature of reality
[2] without needing to bother with any silly experiments or observations. In the pre-scientific age in which Aquinas lived, this sort of thinking could be excused because humans at that time were so completely ignorant about the actual nature of Universe.
Since Aquinas' time, we have discovered that Universe often
isn't intuitive or intelligible to the human mind. Can you really imagine "a billion light-years?" Can you get an intuitive feel for it the way you can for the distance between your house and the store, or even between New York and Los Angeles? No. We can throw out Really Huge Numbers (<Sagan>Billllllions and billlllions</Sagan>) but our minds can't really grasp distance and time on the cosmological scale. Nor can we really wrap our brains around something like quantum tunneling--the way a sub-atomic particle shot at a barrier can appear on the other side of the barrier without penetrating it. Or the two-slit experiment. Or curved space.
4. A rational person should accept (2b), that the universe has some explanation for its being.
As with the other "sophisticated theological" arguments for the existence of deities, this one relies on special pleading. If the "Principle of Human Intelligibility" requires that Universe be intelligible to humans and have an "explanation," this would apply to Aquinas' god too, would it not? Oh, wait, no, you see, God is an
exception to the Principle.
He can be unintelligible if he wants. Three Persons and one Person simultaneously, present in the Eucharist so that it "is" his flesh even though to any possible test or measurement it would be just a wafer of ground wheat. And eating it isn't cannibalism even though it "is" human flesh. Possessing omni-attributes that conflict with one another. Etc. Oh, and Aquinas!God does not require an "explanation." He "just is."
5. There are only three kinds of explanations:
a. Scientific: physical conditions plus relevant laws yield the Event explained.
b. Personal: Explanations that cite desires, beliefs, powers and intentions of some personal agent.
No, "personal agents" are not exempt from the realm of science. They live and move and have their desires, beliefs, powers, and intentions within the framework of "relevant laws."
[3]
c. Essential: The essence of the thing to be explained necessitates its existence or qualities (for example, if you ask why a triangle has 3 sides, I would respond that it is the essence and necessity for a triangle to have 3 sides by its definition.
This "essentialism" is a metaphysical assumption prevalent in Aquinas' time that has no evidential support. There is no reason to propose the existence of an "essence of triangleyness" that makes triangles three-sided. A more parsimonious answer is that
spacetime has shape which constrains the range of possible forms that can exist within it. You cannot, for example, make a three dimensional polygon out of only hexagons. They will always tile flat. There can be five, and only five regular polyhedra. The explanation that spacetime itself has properties is simpler than adding in a whole, separate World of Forms and a metaphysics of "essences." This idea that "empty space" has properties turns out to be a sound basis for cosmic origins (see below).
6. The explanation for the existence of the whole universe can’t be scientific because there can’t be initial physical conditions and laws independent of what is to be explained.
Once again, this is an attempt to decree what can, and cannot be real based on limited human understanding. I do not see why there would be any need for "initial physical conditions and laws independent of what is to be explained." Whatever our irreducible starting point and root of explanation might be, it is not going to be "independent" of what's being explained, otherwise there could be no causal or explanatory link between them.
When physicists talk about the Cosmos emerging "out of nothing," their definition of "nothing" is a bit different from common usage. When I met Victor Stenger at last year's Skepticon, he explained that what a physicist means by "nothing" is what you have when you have removed all particles and fields from a region of space. There is "nothing" there, but it still has properties and still behaves in accordance with the generalized operating principles we call "laws of physics." One of these principles is that it is impossible to know the exact position and the exact energy of a quantum event.
[4] Included in this, is that the position and energy cannot be exactly zero, either.
So this "nothing" is constantly fluctuating energetically. Polarized pairs of "virtual particles" appear and re-annihilate. Since the matter-energy of our Cosmos is balanced by the negative energy of gravity it, too, can emerge as a quantum fluctuation from the "nothing" of spacetime. There is something rather than nothing because "nothing" is unstable. This spacetime manifold is thus a highly parsimonious candidate for our irreducible "brute fact" underlying all explanations. We know it exists. We can perform experiments to observe its properties. In an omnisymmetric "nothing" state, it is irreducibly simple, yet dynamic, so that when the symmetry is broken by the right sort of quantum fluctuation, it can spawn a Big Bang. Deities are
not irreducibly simple. Far from it, if they are supposed to be anthropomorphic conscious beings.
Event the Big Bang theory fails to explain the existence of the universe because modern science cannot explain where the original Big Bang singularity came from. The universe as a sum total of all natural conditions and laws cannot be explained unless we have an Archimidean reference point outside the system.
There are several models that do explain where the BB singularity comes from: Lee Smolin's fecund universe model,
[5] M-theory, Tegmark's Infinite Sea (is that a cool name, or what?), and so on. None of these have been conclusively validated yet, but that's what the Large Hadron Collider is for.

7. The explanation for the existence of the universe can’t be essential because the universe cannot exist necessarily.
To the contrary, I think Universe (as I use the term)
has to exist necessarily. Doing a little copypasta from
my formal debate with "Majesty" on the Kalam Cosmological argument:
For the purposes of my argument from here forward, I will be using the term "Universe" (capital U, no "the") to refer to "everything that exists," and "Cosmos" to refer to "that which emerged from the Big Bang." I do not intend to imply that my opponent is required to abide by this terminology. He is using "universe" as I use "Cosmos."
By "the universe" here, my opponent refers to what I am defining as "the Cosmos" for the purposes of this discussion. When it comes to Universe as I'm using the term, we both agree that it is eternally existent, we just disagree as to its contents. My opponent's conception of Universe would look something like this:
{[Supernatural realm: Yahweh + whatever else supernatural exists]----->Cosmos (or "the universe")}
where these brackets { } enclose the set of everything that exists and these [ ] enclose all supernatural existents.
So, on the level of capital-U Universe (existence as such), we have something that must exist necessarily. The only disagreement is over its contents. Atheists, and the scientific community in general, see no reason that Universe has to include a "supernatural" component. The "supernatural realm" doesn't explain anything, it just demands further explanation. What exactly
is a god? What is it made of? How does god-stuff interact with matter and spacetime? What equations, if any, can accurately model its behavior? How is the "supernatural realm" connected to ours, what equations model the nature of this connection, and how do they integrate with the current equations of physics? Etc..
We know spacetime exists, and we can mathematically model a cosmic origin without any gods involved.
Click here for an explanation by Victor Stenger. There are lots of scary physics equations there, but this does demonstrate that a cosmic origin without gods is plausible to the professionals in the cosmological field.
This is because, it could have been possible for the universe not to have existed (if the Big Bang had been slightly different it is possible for large-scale structures to not have existed). Thus the universe is not something the must necessarily or essentially exists.
This assumes what it seeks to prove. We do not know that the BB could have been "different," or that cosmological constants are mutable. Even if they are, we must still compare the "Goddidit" "explanation" with multiverse theories. Multiverse theories propose that the Cosmos (as I use the term) is only one of many. "Universe" (as I use the term) would correspond to a spactime foam of vast numbers of Cosmoses, which may or may not be like our own. Multiverse theorists tend to use the term "Multiverse" for this, hence the term "multiverse theories." While this does seem a bit counterintuitive, its like has happened twice before in the history of science. Originally, we thought "the" Solar System was Universe. Then we discovered that the stars were suns capable of having their own solar systems. Then we came to conclude that the Milky Way was an "island universe" in the blackness of space, and it constituted all of the matter/energy of Universe. Then we discovered, with better telescopes, that certain "nebulae" in the sky were actually other "island universes," to which we gave the name "galaxies." So it should perhaps not come as
too big a surprise that Universe is bigger than our Big Bang-emergent Cosmos. Multiverse theories propose the existence of more Cosmoses. We know at least one Cosmos exists. We do not have comparable self-evidence in favor of any deity's existence.
8. Thus a rational person should believe that the universe has a personal explanation.
"Invisible Magic Person" (IMP) explanations have a 100% failure rate, so far. So far, every single thing we have come to understand (storms, disease, lightning, etc., etc.,) has turned out to be:
Not Magic.
9. No personal agent but God could create the entire universe.
Unsubstantiated assertion.
10. A rational person should believe that there is a God.
I think I've demonstrated here that this is not the case.